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GRAND NATIONAL - FULL PREVIEW OF SATURDAY'S AINTREE MEETING
By Malcolm Boyle Betting Zone
1.45 Fourteen of the last fifteen winners of this Listed event were aged five or six, whilst the last ten winners all carried weights of 10-13 or less. The last ten favourites have all been beaten (four market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions), with seven of the last nine scorers starting at 10/1 or more (including 25/1-20/1-20/1 outsiders). Irish raiders have won four of the last six renewals (including the last three), and CLASSIC APPROACH could get the day off to a cracking start for John Queally, trainer of Al Eile in the big hurdle race on the card. Philip Hobbs probably hasn't got to the bottom of WELLBEING just yet, and along with MONTE CINTO, the nine-year-old races from the right area of the handicap.
Conclusion: This speculative trio will do for me in the opening event on National day.
2.15 Five, six and seven-year-olds have landed nine of the last ten renewals, whilst the last nine winners have all emerged via the front three in the market (only two of those favourites won however). VOY POR USTEDES was receiving allowances I know, but Alan King's Arkle winner produced a tremendous performance to beat Monet's Garden and FOREMAN, with so many decent horses well beaten on the day. FOREMAN is a great yardstick, and the fact that Robert Thornton's mount beat the French raider by over six lengths (only two pounds worse off here) says plenty about Sir Robert Ogden's potential champion.
Conclusion: Horses that contested the 'Arkle' at the Cheltenham Festival hold the call here, as the last winner of this event that swerved the big novice steeplechase scored in the early nineties. HOO LA BALOO would be the call outside of this year's 'Arkle' contenders.
2.50 Six, seven and eight-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals of this Aintree Hurdle, whilst four of the last five winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or more. Irish raiders have claimed four of the last ten renewals. The strongest stat of all relates to the fact that twenty-eight of the twenty-nine winners ran at the respective Cheltenham Festival in the same year. This is unquestionably a below par renewal and it comes as no surprise whatsoever that connections of SKY'S THE LIMIT have decided to let the five-year-old take his chance. A facile winner of the normally competitive Coral Cup, SKY'S THE LIMIT turned the race into a procession turning for home, whilst it should not be forgotten that the selection was only beaten a few lengths by Fetheard Lady earlier in the season, when attempting to give that progressive opponent three pounds! The five-year-old has it to do according to the stats, but improving horses like this do not come around very often. We now have proof that AL EILE doesn't have the relevant speed to win a Champion Hurdle, but John Queally's runner must be respected after the way the six-year-old took advantage of Brave Inca's fall in this event twelve months ago. Beating Macs Joy, Rooster Booster and Inglis Drever that day, AL EILE certainly looks the main danger to this year's pretender for his crown.
Conclusion: ASIAN MAZE is the overnight reserve.
3.25 Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have claimed two of the last three. Only one five-year-old has landed this race via eighteen renewals. The last seven winners have all carried weights of 11-0 or less, whilst the last five winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-10/1, whilst winners were recorded at 20/1 and 12/1 during the previous five years. Jonjo O'Neill (REFINEMENT and CAMPAIGN TRAIL) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (MISTANOORA and RIMSKY) each have decent records in the race and have made their intentions known via their dual declarations. REFINEMENT and MISTANOORA are likely to figure in my toteplacepot plans, possibly alongside FAIR QUESTION and MATERIAL WORLD.
Conclusion: LIBERMAN and PAPERPROPHET are difficult horses to assess after just two outings this season, but both horses have the potential to go close in this grade/company.
4.15 INNOX is a much improved performer this year, and is four pounds better off with HEDGEHUNTER via last year's renewal, which in general terms is obviously not enough to turn the tables around. INNOX has enjoyed a far easier season however, and this will be just his fourth outing since running seventh in the National last year. CLAN ROYAL could simply be an unlucky horse, the type that is destined never to win a National despite running well on more than one occasion (readers with long memories will remember that Scottish trained Freddie in the sixties suffered a similar fate), but connections will have been pleased with the recent victory over timber, and the eleven-year-old is surely worth another chance from a toteplacepot perspective at the very least. INCA TRAIL is the type of quirky horse that could be suited by this test, whilst the compression of the weights at the top of the handicap suggests that HEDGEHUNTER might not have as big a task as similar horses have faced down the years. CORNISH REBEL is another contender with a touch of class, though 11-9 is a tough ask in such a formidable contest for a horse that is making its Aintree debut. JACK HIGH has won seven of his eight successes on slow ground, though it's worth recalling that the Ted Walsh raider won the 'Bet Fred' on fast ground at Sandown last term, and David Casey's mount is just about the only horse I fancy to run well from further down the handicap, other that another Irish trained raider in GARVIVONIAN. Phil Smith (the official handicapper) has done a decent job in attracting class horses to contest this event, but connections of outsiders hoping for a miracle will not be as pleased as yours truly.
Stats and facts: Nine of the last ten winners were aged nine or more, whilst ten of the last sixteen have scored in 'double figures'. Only Red Rum has carried more than 11-5 to victory in nearly fifty years. You have to go back to pre World War Two times to find a winner less than eight years of age. Irish raiders have claimed four of the last seven renewals. Nine of the last twelve clear joint and co favourites have failed to complete the course, whilst HEDGEHUNTER was the first market leader to score last year since Earth Summit in 1998.
5.00 Seven and eight-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals, whilst three of the last four scorers carried weights of 11-1 or more. WICKED NICE FELLA and MON MOME are likely to figure prominently in my thoughts come sun up, particularly as Venetia Williams has a decent record in the toteplacepot finale. NYCTEOS and NO FULL are two interesting five-year-olds to consider, whilst the Irish raider NEW FIELD is another for the overnight mix.
Conclusion: Good luck on National day.
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