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THE PUNTING PREVIEW WITH NIGEL RIDGWAY 8-4-06
HORSE RACING
GRAND NATIONAL HIGH FIVE FOR bet365
If recent money at bet365 is anything to go then the 2006 Grand
National
result will read, Clan Royal first, Garvivonnian second. The latter has
been well-backed all week and is now 16/1 from 20/1, while Jonjo
O'Neil's
runner looks sure to go off favourite - currently 5/1 joint with
Hedgehunter. Garvivonnian landed the Becher Chase back in November, the
form of which amounts to little, but at least it shows he can handle
the
National fences. His latest run behind Forget The Past has been franked
by
the winners' run in the Gold Cup, and he must have sound each way
prospects, especially as we're paying out down to five places here at
bet365.
bet365 - each way ¼ odds, 1.2.3.4.5 on the Grand National!
5/1 ROYAL - THIRD TIME LUCKY ?
As for Clan Royal, it could be a case of third time lucky in the
National
for the eleven-year-old, but he now looks very short in the betting
considering his tendency to pull hard in his races. Besides, it's
debatable
whether he would have beaten impressive winner Hedgehunter last year if
he
hadn't been carried out by a loose horse, so there has to be better
value
further down the bet365 betting list.
BOTTOM WEIGHTS ARE BEST
At this stage, with a maximum field of 40, there are still doubts over
whether several fancied horses will get a run. Still, we can back our
selections with confidence here at bet365, as we're non-runner no bet
on
the big race - why go anywhere else for your National bets! Although
the
race is attracting more quality horses these days, the race
traditionally
favours horses carrying less than 11 stone (bet365 go 3/1 that the
winner
carries 11st or above), and the two that stand out near the bottom of
the
weights are Direct Access (25/1) and Ross Comm (20/1).
The former was last seen when winning the Rehearsal Chase back in
December
(jumped well), but has a great record fresh and a Grand National
winning
jockey to boot in Tony Dobbin. He looks sure to run well, while the Sue
Smith-trained Ross Comm must also come into the reckoning after
bouncing
back to form last time out over a barely adequate 2m 4f at Bangor. The
gelding was also travelling sweetly when falling at the 16th in the
Hennessey in November, and will have the services of the talented
Dominic
Elsworth in the saddle, who rode a winner for the in-form stable at
Kelso
on Monday.
Grand National Picks:
Garvivonnian @ 16/1
Ross Comm @ 20/1
Direct Access @ 25/1
GINGER 20/1 FOR NATIONAL GRAND FINALE
As well as offering outstanding each way terms on the big race (1/4
odds,
1.2.3.4.5, worth repeating!), bet365 have also wasted no time in
pricing up
a whole gamut of 'Race Specials'. They were originally 3/1 that there
would
be a fifth Irish-trained winner of the race in eight years, but that's
been
now been cut to 2/1 (still a decent shout when you consider what
they've
got running!), but you can still have 20/1 about the
soon-to-be-retiring
Aintree legend Ginger McCain training a fifth National winner. His best
shot looks to be the recently acquired Inca Trail who could surprise a
few
people by running well at the current bet365 price of 50/1. In the same
market, the seven-strong Paul Nicholls is a 4/1 shot to train the
winner,
while you can have 6/1 that all the runners negotiate the first fence.
Good
luck.
FOOTBALL
UNITED WORTHY FAVOURITES AT EVENS
Manchester United v Arsenal
Su Apr 9 - 4.00 pm ko (SS1)
Let's hope we don't see a repeat of the boring 0-0 draw at Highbury, or
the
Cup Final for that matter, but that's unlikely with both teams bang in
form
and looking like they could beat anyone right now. Of course, Arsenal
have
a trip to Europe in midweek to worry about, and the result there could
influence this game. If they lose to Juventus, their confidence is
bound to
be affected, but there's nothing to affect United's confidence right
now,
and they look a worthy favourite for the game at bet365's Evens (11/4
Arsenal, 11/5 the Draw).
The Red Devils have won eight games on the spin and, with home field
advantage in front of 70,000 fans believing their team can still win
the
Premiership, you have to fancy United to win. It won't be my much, so
we'll
also be backing them to win by one goal at 11/4 - the 1-0 correct score
pays out better at 6/1, while Louis Saha has to be the bet at 4/1 to
score
first, as he's playing our of his skin right now. Remember, if he
scores
the last goal in the game instead, bet365 will give you your money
back.
Also, don't forget to check out bet365's 14 dynamic In-Play markets on
this
game (kick off 4.00pm).
Live Game Picks:
United to beat Arsenal @ Evens
United to win by one goal @ 11/4
United to win 1-0 @ 6/1 / Saha to score first @ 4/1 - Scorecast pays
out at
20/1
bet365 latest Premiership prices . Chelsea 1/12, Man United 6/1,
Liverpool
150/1
MANCINI BACKED AS INTER CRASH OUT
bet365's Next Manager markets always create massive interest, and it's
not
unusual to see several gambles before an appointment is made. The
bet365
Next Newcastle Manager market is no exception. The latest gamble has
seen
Inter boss Roberto Mancini slashed into 9/2 from an earlier 33/1 (one
punt
of £500 at 6/1), after his team were knocked out of the champions
League by
Villarreal, and he could well be looking for a job over the summer.
bet365 Next Permanent Newcastle Manager prices . Martin O'Neil 15/8,
Roberto Mancini 9/2, Quique Sanchez Flores 7/1, Sam Allardyce 9/1, Mark
Hughes, 12/1, others on bet365 website.
6/4 POMPEY GOING THE RIGHT WAY
The battle to escape relegation from the Premiership is hotting-up, and
one
of the key games this weekend looks to be Portsmouth (6/4) at home to
Blackburn (7/4, 11/5 the draw). Pompey are playing their way to
Premiership
safety after a third successive win at the weekend, and this is one of
five
remaining fixtures at home for them. Here at bet365, they've emerged as
favourites (8/13) to win a three-horse race with Birmingham (1/2) and
West
Brom (1/4) for top-flight survival. And they could take all three
points
from Rovers, who are challenging for European football on their home
form
alone (lost five straight ways, before winning at Sunderland).
Portsmouth to beat Blackburn @ 6/4
bet365 Premiership Relegation prices . West Brom 1/4, Birmingham 1/2 ,
Portsmouth 8/13, others on website
O'LEARY 10/1 TO COME AWAY WITH NO POINTS
Birmingham are making a fight of it too, and will fancy their chances
of
landing the odds (14/5) at Wigan on Saturday. The Latics have only won
one
home game in their last six, but that's probably more to do with the
quality of their opposition, and Birmingham just don't compare to the
likes
of West Ham, United, Liverpool and Blackburn. Back Wigan to win at
10/11,
and have a few quid on West Brom at 3/1 to beat a Villa side who were
woeful against Arsenal last time. Here at bet365, we go 10/1 that Villa
take no points from their forthcoming Birmingham derbies, and a defeat
here
(and against Birmingham on the 16th March), could see Doug Ellis
joining an
ever-growing list of people wearing "We're not fickle, we just don't
like
you" badges!
Wigan to beat Birmingham @ 10/11
West Brom to beat Aston Villa @ 3/1
UP TO 60% MORE FOR YOUR HITTING YOUR ACCA THIS WEEKEND
As always, if you're thinking of having an acca on the footy this
weekend,
make bet365 your choice of bookmaker as they'll give you a), decent
odds
(bet to 107% on the Premiership, and b), a bonus of up to 60% on your
acca
if it includes all top-flight teams. This weekend's suggested acca
involves
United (Evens), Wigan (10/11), Portsmouth (6/4) and West Brom (3/1),
and
pays out just over £400 for a tenner, including a bet365 bonus of 5%.
Good
luck.
GOLF
THE MASTERS - BIG ONE OR BIG FIVE?
Th Apr 13 - 21.00 BST (SS2)
Fr Apr 14 - 21.00 BST (SS2)
Sa Apr 15 - 20.00 BST (SS2)
Su Apr 16 - 20.00 BST (SS2)
Enhanced bet365 odds of 11/4 on Tiger for the Masters anyone? Those
odds
would have looked very generous a couple of months ago after Tiger's
sensational start to the year, but the World No.1 may pull out at any
stage
to be with his ailing father and, even if he does play, his mind could
be
elsewhere this week. So, at the odds, he's reluctantly passed over, but
we
needn't go too far down the bet365 betting list for the winner.
The recent changes to Augusta, which have seen it lengthened to over
7,400
yards, have certainly played into the hands of the big hitters, and the
'Big Five' have one important common factor - length off the tee.
Therefore, it's likely that a permutation of Woods, Singh, Mickelson,
Goosen and Els will be dominating the leaderboard come Sunday, but
that's
only what we've come to expect in the Major's. In the last 25, Woods
has 15
finishes in the top-10, Els, Singh and Mickelson each has 14, while
Goosen
has nine top-10's, and the latter gets the outright pick this week at
bet365's Enhanced Win Only price of 10/1.
TOP GOOSEN AT 10/1
After a light schedule at the start of the year, the 'Goose' looks to
have
timed his run to perfection. A superb second in the Players', where he
was
only beaten by an inspired Ames, was then followed by a solid
fourth-place
finish at last week's Bell South. His performance there was no surprise
as
he's a past winner at Sugarloaf in 2002 and, ominously, that was
followed
by a second-place finish in the Masters. In fact, his four-year Masters
record is superb - 3rd, 13th, 13th and 2nd - and more importantly, he's
a
superb putter (6th in best putting stats for this season), so he looks
sure
to give you a good run for your money this week.
OLAZABAL SUPERIOR AT 28/1
Yet, although length off the tee is now a massive advantage here,
there's
still more to playing Augusta than brute strength. The same group of
players tend to do well here year in year out, including Jose Maria
Olazabal, who's playing some of the best golf of his career right now.
The
two-time Masters winner arrives here in top form after two runner-up
finishes already in 2006 and, providing he can cope with the changes,
he
has the superior course knowledge to compete once again. He looks a
solid
each way bet at bet365's 33/1 (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5), and a shoe-in for
Top
European at 5/1 - an honour he's claimed on three occasions in the
past.
Top European - Olazabal @ 5/1
200/1 TAYLOR TO ENJOY HOME ADVANTAGE
If you're looking for a long-shot, then Vaughn Taylor could be the one
at a
massive 200/1 with bet365. He hits it miles, he's a very useful putter,
and
is a Georgia resident, so will enjoy home advantage this week. Ok, he's
unlikely to be wearing the green jacket come Sunday, but he's certainly
worth a bet at 100/1 in bet365's Top American market, as he might not
even
have to finish in the frame for you to collect. He also reached a
land-mark birthday of 30 on March 9th, and that was promptly followed
by
his best finish in a full-field event this year (8th at the Players'),
and
there could be better to come.
Top American - Vaughn Taylor @ 100/1
BETTING AUGUSTA IN-PLAY
Of course, some of you may wish to wait until after the first round (or
even later) to see who's playing well before placing your bets, and
there's
a certain logic to that policy. This brutal course is certainly not one
on
which you can play catch-up so, when placing your bets via our Live
In-Play
Console, it's worth bearing this in mind. Although its 21 years since
the
first round leader came through to triumph, the winner has come from
the
last group out in the final round for the last 15 years. Also, betting
In-Play demands that you remember that, on the back nine, the two par
five's at the 13th and 15th have always yielded plenty of birdies and
eagles, so players are generally best backed before they play these
holes.
The Masters Three Off The Tee . Retief Goosen @ 10/1 (EWO), Jose Maria
Olazabal @ 28/1, Vaughn Taylor @ 200/1. Each-way ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.5
Get in the game and be lucky!
Nigel
NIGEL RIDGWAY, an experienced punter and betting shop owner of many
years,
believes that "The key to successful gambling is getting value for
money."
Nigel was once forced by local bookmakers, to stop writing a tipping
column
in a UK newspaper, because he was costing them a fortune. Find out what
offers and lines are hot at bet365.com.
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