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WHY STEVE McCLAREN IS THE MAN TO GET BORO OUT OF TROUBLE 5-1-06
In an attempt to match the seriousness of Boro's possible relegation, James Bassett leaves the half-arsed jokes and pseudo-news reporting behind and turns his attention to analysing Steve McClaren's chances of hauling Boro out of the danger zone.
This was supposed to be the season where Steve McClaren cemented Boro's position as a top six side. By bringing in another regular goalscorer to the squad (Yakubu), replacing Boudewijn Zenden with a midfielder of equal craft and guile (Fabio Rochemback), exchanging the uninterested Michael Reiziger with a player determined to win back a place in the Portuguese national side (Abel Xavier) and warning the imperious Franck Queudrue against complacency with the addition to the squad of a realistic challenger to his left-back berth (Emanuel Pogatetz), the omens were good.
Rochemback has so far struggled to come to terms with the Premiership, Pogatetz - despite the loss of form that Queudrue has suffered - has not done enough to suggest that he'll succeed in this league and Abel Xavier's brief tenure in the team ended with front page tabloid scandal. A combination of these factors, and many more besides, has left Boro languishing in 16th place in the Premiership. It's safe to say that the season isn't working out quite how Steve McClaren planned.
With relegation a very real possibility, many fans are beginning to question Steve McClaren's ability to haul his team out of the doldrums, but statistics suggest that the Boro boss may be better equipped than some of his peers when it comes to the rigours of a relegation scrap. By analysing the Premiership results earned in the period between 1st January and the end of the season by McClaren and his main rivals, it may be possible to get an indication of which teams will end up playing in The Championship nest season.
If we consider Sunderland to be already relegated, which, I think it's safe to say they are, the teams most likely to be in danger according to their current league positions are, besides Boro, Fulham, West Brom, Birmingham, Everton and Portsmouth.
Interestingly, it's Everton boss, David Moyes, who comes out worst. Everton, under his stewardship have claimed a meagre 1.2 points per game in the second half of the season. The Toffees also have a propensity for receiving late season thrashings, having been annihilated 7-0 by Arsenal last season, 5-1 by Manchester City in May of 2004 and 6-2 by Newcastle in March of 2003. With relegation a real possibility this season, such a defeat could spell the end of their Premiership residency.
Fairing slightly better are Birmingham and West Brom, who have earned 1.21 points per game under Steve Bruce and Bryan Robson respectively. Birmingham have, along with Sunderland, scored the fewest amount of goals in the league this season and, without some serious transfer activity in January, will probably find themselves a division lower next season. Meanwhile, West Brom's remarkable last minute escape from relegation last season owed as much to Norwich's capitulation as it did to Bryan Robson's motivational skills.
Harry Redknapp is often applauded as a Manager who can make a real difference in the January transfer window and his points per game average of 1.23 puts him slightly above that achieved by Bruce and Robson. Perhaps surprisingly though, it is Fulham under Chris Coleman who fare best, having collected 1.37 points per game under the Welshman. This figure is sufficiently high to indicate that Coleman has the wherewithal to drag Fulham to mid-table respectability. The potential sale of Papa Bouba Diop might scupper those plans, however.
This leaves Steve McClaren. The Boro boss has earned 1.25 points per game in the second half of the season since his arrival at The Riverside. This may not sound much higher than that achieved by Bruce, Robson and Redknapp, but, as Boro proved last season by qualifying for the Uefa Cup via goal difference, a small advantage is often enough. Plus, there are other factors to consider. Unlike Everton, Boro traditionally despatch the springtime thrashings. In 2003, Boro hammered Spurs 5-1, in 2004 it was Birmingham who suffered a 5-3 defeat and West Brom succumbed to a 4-0 destruction last season.
These statistics are enough to suggest that Steve McClaren has the necessary skills to pull Boro to safety. It won't, however, be easy. The time has come for McClaren, and the rest of his coaching team, to repay the faith that the fiercely loyal Steve Gibson has placed in them. I believe that he has it in him to do just that. I only pray that my optimism isn't misguided.
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