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FA CUP - BOLTON CAN BREAK BIG FOUR MONOPOLY
There's a strong argument to say there's no point whatsover looking beyond the big four when trying to find the winner of the FA Cup.
For in the last 11 years no side has managed to break their monopoly - Arsenal winning four times, Manchester United three and Chelsea and Liverpool twice each.
It's probably fair to say that their dominance in the Premiership is as strong as ever too so it's desperately hard to make a case against them.
But we're about to try because circumstances could just make things a little different this time around.
For a start all four of them are into the knockout stages of the Champions League which will clearly take priority.
Secondly we've finally got a decent battle for the title between Manchester United and Chelsea which looks like going right down to the wire.
And thirdly, one of Liverpool or Arsenal will exit at the first hurdle as they clash at Anfield in the tie of the third round - just three days before they meet in their delayed Carling Cup quarter-final as the fixtures pile up.
Clearly those four sides do have the strongest squads but they could be stretched to breaking point over the next few months and it will surely be the FA Cup which suffers.
We've already seen with Chelsea's struggle to cope without John Terry and Petr Cech that it doesn't take much to make even the very top sides vulnerable against the rest of the Premiership so it definitely looks worthwhile casting our eyes a little further down the FA Cup betting on this occasion.
And at the risk of over-simplifying things we're also going to put a line through various other groups of sides.
First up are the relegation-threatened teams (Watford, Charlton, Sheffield United, West Ham, Wigan and Middlesbrough) as their priorities will also lie elsewhere and on current form they're not good enough anyway.
The last three of those have the stronger FA Cup claims and West Ham of course made the final last season.
However they were flying then and finished in the top half of the table whereas now they head into this weekend on the back of a 6-0 mauling at Reading.
Wigan also reached the Millennium Stadium in the Carling Cup 12 months ago but their desperate record against the big four is enough to rule them out while Boro are far too inconsistent and much too reliant on Mark Viduka to make them a serious betting proposition.
It's a similar story with the top sides in the Championship because as runaway leaders Reading proved last term there's every chance they too will sacrifice an FA Cup run to concentrate on making the promised land of the Premiership.
Next up for crossing off our list are UEFA Cup contenders Tottenham, Newcastle and Blackburn.
All three have already played a host of extra matches this term just to make the last 32 - and usually with teams close to their starting XI.
The trio will also be hoping to seal European qualification for next season via the Premiership which will further stretch resources (Spurs are also in the Carling Cup semis) and when you throw in the fact they've all got tricky away ties in round three (against Cardiff, Birmingham and Everton respectively) we're happy to leave well alone.
That therefore leaves us with seven teams - Bolton at 28/1, Everton at 33/1, Portsmouth at 40/1, Aston Villa and Manchester City both at 50s, Reading at 66/1 and Fulham at 80s.
And it's the first three of those who hold the most appeal at the prices, with each-way bets the suggestion because even if the big four continue to dominate there is real hope of at least getting a surprise finalist given West Ham, Millwall and Southampton have all reached Cardiff in the last four years.
We'll start with Everton who were the last side outside Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal to go all the way when they triumphed in 1995.
And there's no doubt they are moving the right direction under David Moyes because they've played like a top eight side for around 12 months now.
They've got options aplenty up front, with the much-maligned Andy Johnson a key figure and 18-year-old Victor Anichebe looking a real star of the future.
But it's freescoring midfielders Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta who are perhaps most important to them as they've struggled when they've been on the treatment table lately.
Arteta only missed a couple of weeks and is back now but Cahill has been out since the start of November so it's a real boost he's also in contention for a return.
When Everton are at full strength they are a match for anyone and though they've got to overcome a tough opener with Blackburn it is at least at Goodison and they strike us as one of the few teams who should grow stronger and stronger as the season progresses.
Another team more than capable of spiking the big guns are Bolton as they showed last season when dumping Arsenal out in the fourth round.
They are genuine challengers for a Champions League place this term so it's a bit of a mystery why they are available at 28s.
The one thing they've lacked in recent campaigns is a striker who is going to get them 15-plus goals a season but Nicolas Anelka - with seven in his last nine - might just be about to give them that added dimension.
Their no-nonsense physical style means they shouldn't be unduly concerned by a third round trip to lower league opposition (in this case Doncaster) and Sam Allardyce also appears to be taking the FA Cup more seriously these days than was always the case in the past.
It's also worth pointing out that they were involved in the UEFA Cup last season but that isn't a distraction this time around.
Portsmouth have to be part of the staking plan too at 40/1 which is an insult for a side that's been in the top six from the outset and isn't showing any signs of suddenly going into freefall.
Their escape last term under Harry Redknapp was astonishing but we were among those who expected them to face a relegation battle again this season.
It hasn't happened though and while that's chiefly down to their form at Fratton Park it's not as if they are soft touches on their travels as they've already picked up points away to both Liverpool (one of only two sides to avoid defeat at Anfield this season) and Arsenal.
Indeed they've now won exactly half of their last 32 Premiership matches which is a hugely impressive tally and suggests the bookies haven't quite latched onto their full potential.
Redknapp can also be relied upon to plug any gaps in his squad during the January transfer window but things couldn't be going much better at present and a decent FA Cup run is a logical progression.
Of the remainder, Aston Villa (nightmare draw away to Manchester United and out of form anyway), Manchester City (not good enough and vulnerable away from home) and Fulham (half the squad is out injured) are all readily passed over.
It's much harder to leave Reading out of calculations though because there are plenty of similarities between themselves now and West Ham last season.
Survival in the Premiership remains their priority but such has been their form so far - and with a positive brand of football too - they could easily find themselves safe by the time we get to the business end of the FA Cup.
However Steve Coppell fielded virtual second-string teams in the competition last term despite the fact they appeared massive odds-on for an automaticpromotion spot and that's just enough to put us off.
By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.
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