GROUP A PREVIEW: GERMANY'S HOME COMFORTS
Dave Tindall

GERMANY

Germany have two massive historical trends in their favour - their past record in World Cups and the hugely successful record of home nations. That's the good news. The bad is a moderate team, who Michael Ballack and perhaps Jens Lehmann apart, would get nowhere near any World XI. The same was said of the 2002 team however and, on the back of a favourable draw, they went all the way to the final. The draw has again been kind to the hosts and this Group looks a straight shootout between Germany and Poland. Home advantage and the fact that Germany have topped their group for the last four World Cups running says the hosts will do so again.

COSTA RICA

A modest qualifying record of five wins, a draw and four defeats was enough to send the Ticos to a third World Cup finals and those previous two appearances suggest they have something to offer. In 1990 they reached the last sixteen after beating Scotland and Sweden and they only went out on goal difference to eventual semi-finalists Turkey in 2002. Brazilian-born Alexandre Guimaraes, their manager four years ago, is back at the helm and if they can sneak something against Germany in the opening game they could make the last 16 again.

POLAND

Poland banged in 27 goals in finishing runners-up to England in qualifying, showing their ability to punish lesser-ranked opponents. The two defeats to England perhaps showed their limitations though and emulating the Polish teams who finished third in both 1974 and 1982 looks a tall order. Poland were abysmal in 2002 until winning their final group game against the USA but their prospects look brighter now. An opening game against Ecuador, whom they beat 3-0 in a November friendly, gives them a good chance to hit the ground running.

ECUADOR

If the World Cup was being played in Ecuador the South Americans would be a real handful as they slayed both Brazil and Argentina in qualifying in the high altitude of their capital city Quito. But with hardly any of their squad having experience of playing in Europe, a repeat of their fourth place group finish in Japan and South Korea beckons. At least their defence looks more robust this time and former Southampton striker Austin Delgado has goals in him if he gets the right service.

VERDICT:

1) Germany
2) Poland
3) Costa Rica
4) Ecuador

Germany look justifiable odds-on favourites to top the group but, on first glance, the 4/9 is giving nothing away and Poland, at 4/1, could attract money. But home advantage should never be underestimated and Germany's past record at the group stage suggests they should be solid bets to come out on top in what is one of the easiest groups on show. One option is to put them in a double with Group F certainties Brazil at just under even money or, alternatively, take the 6/4 that Poland follow them through in second at 6/4. Another interesting bet here is the 6/1 about Group A producing most goals. Germany, Poland and Costa Rica all like to attack and although we're unlikely to see a real thrashing there should be a good spread of goals across all six games. In conclusion, there is plenty of time to be adventurous in this World Cup but we'll kick off with a steady opener which, in our view, should be shorter odds than it is.

Best bet: Germany to top Group A doubled with Brazil to win Group F at 0.93/1.

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