GROUP F PREVIEW: CROATIA TO WIN RACE FOR SECOND
Dave Tindall

BRAZIL

The group phase for Brazil is usually a question of 'how many goals will they score?' rather than 'will they qualify?' and it looks no different this time. The tournament favourites are just 1/3 to come out on top in a group featuring Croatia, Australia and Japan but you could argue they should be shorter. The samba stars have topped their group for the last six World Cups and last time they did it with three wins and 11 goals. With the likes of Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Adriano and Kaka in attack, a repeat performance could well be on the cards and given their inbuilt desire to entertain and play attacking football you always know that Brazil will still be pressing the accelerator even if they've already wrapped up qualification with a game to spare. Brazil to win Group F is simply a must for any group accumulator bets.

CROATIA

Croatia were the revelation of the tournament on their World Cup debut in 1998 but, despite a shock 2-1 win over Italy, age caught up with them in 2002 as they limped out after a 1-0 defeat to Ecuador. But the feeling this time is that the pendulum will swing back again and they'll enjoy another successful tournament. Unlike predecessor Otto Baric, coach Zlatko Kranjcar prefers an attacking formation with two wingers and the men in the red and white checks were unbeaten in qualifying with seven wins and three draws. Unlike four years ago the climate will suit them much more too. Several of their stars are with Bundesliga clubs and with a strong ex-pat community in Germany they should receive plenty of support too.

AUSTRALIA

It's been a long and frustrating wait but Australia are finally back at the World Cup finals after a 32-year absence. Their only previous appearance was also on German soil but this squad will be hoping to achieve more than the 1974 side that finished bottom of their group and failed to score a single goal. They certainly have much more in their favour this time. The vast majority of their squad play their football in Europe while boss Guus Hiddink took South Korea to the semi-finals in 2002. It's Hiddink's emphasis on teamwork that gives them a chance of making it out of the group but in Harry Kewell, Mark Viduka and Tim Cahill they also have players capable of individual brilliance. Their final group game with Croatia could well decide who finishes second to Brazil.

JAPAN

Boosted by home-soil advantage, Japan made it through the group stage in 2002 but they will do well to match that achievement this time. Expectations in Japan are high after they topped qualifying with five wins out of six and the fact that more of their squad play in Europe than ever before should make them much more competitive than they were in France in 1998 (three defeats out of three and just one goal scored). Coach Zico will at least know everything there is to know about Brazil and he put that knowledge to good use in the 2005 Confederations Cup when they held the world champions to a 2-2 draw and could even have nicked it at the death. A 3-0 home-soil win over Australia in their last meeting in 2001 is another plus but in this more competitive environment the Asian champions are up against it.

VERDICT

1) Brazil
2) Croatia
3) Australia
4) Japan

Brazil are an absolute shoo-in to top the group but the battle for second could be interesting with no obvious group whipping-boys. If Croatia lose to Brazil in the opening game, the winner (if there is one) in the Australia v Japan clash would be in an excellent position. Japan's decent showing in the Confederations Cup where the Aussies lost all three games would appear to give them the edge but their lack of goals could catch up with them. If Australia's best players shine, they could be value at 5/1 to follow Brazil through, but pre-tournament injuries to Harry Kewell and Tim Cahill must be a worry. Guus Hiddink will squeeze everything he can from them but, for me, Croatia are a decent outfit and should be too strong.

The worry is that defeat to Brazil in the opening game will put them on the back foot but Turkey recovered from a similar setback in 2002 and went all the way to the semis. Arguably, backing Croatia to qualify after they've played (and lost) to Brazil is the best option but we'll take them before the off at Premierbet's backable 13/8 to finish second. To win the group they'd almost certainly have to beat Brazil in the opening game as you'd fancy the holders to accumulate a much better goal difference if the pair ended level on points. That's why second place looks by far their most likely finishing position.

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