GROUP H PREVIEW: GAIN WITH UKRAINE OVER SPAIN
Dave Tindall

SPAIN

Yet again, Spain find themselves odds-on favourites to top their World Cup group but backing them at 4/6 comes with a health warning. In the last seven finals, they've finished on pole just twice and even Northern Ireland pipped them to top spot when Spain played host in 1982. True, they won three out of three to win their group four years ago but Spain's World Cup story is one of continuing underachievement. The belief that they're dodgy favourites is heightened when we remember that they finished second behind Serbia & Montenegro in qualifying after drawing five of their 10 games. Their only realistic contenders for top spot this time are Ukraine but it's not beyond Spain to trip over themselves and mess up in their second game against Tunisia.

UKRAINE

Ukraine's hopes of making an impact on this World Cup lie squarely on the shoulders of striker Andriy Shevchenko... or do they? While their star man battles to be fit in time, Ukraine warmed up for Germany with a 4-0 thumping of fellow finalists Costa Rica. Too much can be read into friendlies but hitting four goals without Shevchenko in the side was a real psychological boost. Ukraine's strengths start at the back where their defence kept six clean sheets in one of the toughest qualifying groups. They also have a decent goal threat from midfield and manager Oleg Blokhin has proved an astute tactician since taking over in 2003 and turning Ukraine from nearly-men into a side which qualified for the finals with two games to spare.

TUNISIA

The Tunisians have plenty of World Cup experience under their belts now having made it to the two previous finals but they've still to make it out of the group stage. Roger Lemerre is the man given the task of re-writing history and he'll be desperate to make a mark after his miserable experience with France in 2002 when the tournament favourites crashed out without scoring a goal. Lemerre has been in charge for four years so they benefit from a stability not often shared by African sides. Winning the 2004 African Nations on home soil means Lemerre is still a national hero even if they only made the quarters in 2006. Brazilian-born striker Francileundo Dos Santos is their chief strike threat and, if he can deliver, their defence, which includes Bolton's Rahdi Jaidi, may be strong enough to make those goals count for something more than mere consolations.

SAUDI ARABIA

Before we dismiss Saudi Arabia as the shambolic side who lost 8-0 to Germany in the last World Cup, it's worth pointing out that in qualifying for these finals they beat 2002 semi-finalists South Korea both home and away. And back in the 1994 World Cup they actually made it through the group after wins over Morocco and Belgium (remember Saeed Owairan's wonder goal!). Obviously their main problem in 2002 was the defence but in their final Asian qualifying group they kept five clean sheets out of six, including two shutouts against the Koreans. However, since then the famously trigger-happy Saudi FA have axed Argentine coach Gabriel Calderon and replaced him with Brazilian Marco Paqueta. While it's possible they could take something from their opener against Tunisia, the recent 2-0 friendly loss to the Czech Republic reaffirms the belief that the two European sides will prove too strong.

VERDICT:

1) Ukraine
2) Spain
3) Tunisia
4) Saudi Arabia

The nightmare scenario for Spain is that they lose to Ukraine in their opener, are held by Tunisia in game two and then thrash Saudi Arabia 6-0 - a result rendered meaningless as Ukraine and Tunisia play out a draw to ensure they both go through. Could it happen? It's not beyond the realms of possibility and the Ukraine-Tunisia forecast is a tempting 20/1 in places but eight or nine times out of ten you'd expect Spain to progress from this relatively easy group. However, on the proviso that Andriy Shevchenko is passed fit, Ukraine are definite value at 9/4 to pip them to top spot. The gap between the two teams isn't as wide as the odds suggest and, unlike Spain, Ukraine won't have any demons to battle if things go wrong. This is their first World Cup and, with no real pressure on them, they have everything to gain. If Shevchenko isn't fit, this would probably become a 'no bet' although if Ukraine's odds drifted towards 3/1 it would still be worth a punt.

Best bet: Ukraine to top group at 9/4

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