TACTIS: SET-PIECE SIGNIFICANCE
Mike Holden

As we draw towards the climax of this series, it's only fitting that we dedicate this final angle to the climax of the World Cup itself by concentrating our thoughts on the crucial factors that can make all the difference at the business end of the competition.

So let's just forget about the group stages altogether for now and imagine that any team I refer to over the course of this article has already qualified for the knockout phase because that's when the tactical side of international football really plays its most significant role.

If you've ever watched an entire World Cup from start to finish, the chances are your attention span towards the action has waned somewhat by around the quarter-final stage. There are several possible explanations for this, not least the fact that you've already watched 50-odd games in the space of 18 days!

But the likelihood is that you've also grown disillusioned at the extent to which tension and anxiety has resulted in negativity from players scared out of their wits about making the solitary mistake that can wipe out all the hopes and dreams of their population in an instant.

Commanding defenders and midfield enforcers generally win their individual battles against tiring attackers once the plaudits for entertaining football take second precedence to the real prize at stake.

The whole point is that the climax of a World Cup is not meant to be riveting stuff for anyone other than those connected with the nations still involved. The time for wooing a worldwide audience is in the group stages when minds are fresh and occasional errors can be easily rectified over the course of the opening fortnight.

In the first round, everybody is keen to showcase their talent and those who attack with greatest purpose are generally rewarded with points and progression. In the knockout stages, however, it's more a case of 'last man standing' as the coaches take centre stage in their attempts to outwit the opposition.

It always amazes me how little regard most punters have for the role that coaches play in football, their thoughts will always be influenced by the names on the team sheet above all else, regardless of the instructions those players might have been given in the dressing room.

In that respect, I'm the complete opposite. My eyes are usually fixed towards the dugout because I firmly believe that a great coach in charge of Togo can get the better of a bad coach in charge of Brazil over the course of 90 minutes, extra-time and penalties with an adequate amount of time to prepare. It just so happens that most of the best coaches have been employed to oversee the challenge of the best teams.

So which nations do I foresee causing problems in the knockout stages by virtue of the man in charge? Well, there are two coaches travelling to Germany that boast an international record that stands up to the closest of scrutiny.

Dutchman Guus Hiddink has enjoyed an illustrious career at both club level and international level but his greatest achievement was undoubtedly guiding co-hosts South Korea to the semi-finals of the last World Cup, however fortunate they might have been.

It was the second time that Hiddink had reached the last four, having taken his own nation to the same stage at his first finals in 1998, and although it might be asking too much for him to repeat the feat for a third time with Australia, the Socceroos threat should not be dismissed out-of-hand if they do upset the odds by reaching the knockout phase.

Australian sportsmen by their very nature are stubborn and resilient opponents and the combination of their stock being guided by a bloke like Hiddink is a quite formidable prospect. It's just a shame for those Down Under that they haven't had the benefit of Hiddink's expertise for longer in the build-up to this tournament.

Meanwhile, Luiz Felipe Scolari is the main man coming back to defend the trophy after guiding an unfancied Brazil team to glory in Yokohama four years ago and he has since led Portugal to the final of Euro 2004, having plotted England's downfall in both competitions.

For all of Sven-Goran Eriksson's many doubters in this country, the Swede is a coach held in the highest esteem by virtually every footballer he has ever managed and his overall record in competitive internationals is extremely impressive.

However, 'Big Phil' has now twice strangled the creative inspiration from Eriksson's team in quarter-finals over the last four years, exposing what we now know to be his greatest weakness, an inability to come up with a logistical Plan B during the heat of the action.

That speaks volumes for the Brazilian as a tactician and it was of little surprise that he was the FA's first choice to succeed Eriksson after this tournament.

Many people would be forgiven for thinking that Portugal's zenith ought to have been at the European Championships they hosted two years ago but there is sufficient reason to believe that Scolari has improved them since then and it would be ironic if they were to lift the world's greatest prize in Germany when all and sundry had assumed their chance of glory had passed.

One of the big reasons for Portugal's overall improvement under Scolari is their ability to score goals from the excellent set piece deliveries of Deco and Luis Figo, which might surprise a few people given the image of how the Portuguese traditionally approach their football.

As I was keen to outline in my introduction, the influence of set pieces in deciding the outcome of crucial matches at any level should never be underestimated and I've been to keen to refer to video evidence in order to hammer the point home in this particular feature. Needless to say, my findings supported my instincts.

At the last two World Cups there have been 30 knockout games, four of which have ended goalless after 90 minutes. Of the remaining 26 games in which the deadlock was broken inside normal time, the first goal arrived from a set piece on none fewer than 14 occasions - that's more than 50 per cent of the time. Oh yeah, and you can add another two occasions to that list if you wish to include penalties in your definition of a set piece.

So there you go, only once in every three games in the knockout phase of a World Cup can we expect the deadlock to be broken inside the 90 minutes from open play. Are you still convinced that your ante-post selection on the outright market can go all the way to Berlin purely on the strength of their free-flowing passing game?

Of course, set piece routines play a big part in the training methods of most coaches nowadays, which makes identifying the countries with significant set-play prowess a difficult process to undertake.

However, one nation that would appear to be having problems in this area going into the tournament is Paraguay.

Height in defence is usually a pre-requisite for South American teams when facing any European opposition but the Paraguayans distinct lack of it has been a worry for their coach Anibal Ruiz ever since last December's draw in Liepzig paired them with England and Sweden.

Last week's 2-2 draw with Norway in Oslo will have done little to appease his concerns, given that both of Norway's goals were scored from set pieces, and the prospect of dealing with Peter Crouch and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in Paraguay's opening two fixtures at the finals will no doubt be giving Ruiz a few sleepless nights between now and June 10.

Okay, so I told you to forget all about the group stages throughout this feature but such is the significance of set plays, I'm inclined to suggest that Ruiz should forget all about the knockout stages now.

Anyway, in the unlikely event that set pieces haven't somehow shaped the destiny of the two teams contesting this summer's final in Berlin, the likelihood is that a penalty shoot-out will have.

The probability of any knockout match at the World Cup going the full distance is approximately 20 per cent, a figure that remains consistent at each of the various inter-continental championships around the globe. So it should really be of little surprise that six of the last eight finalists have had their fate in the competition decided by shoot-out at some stage.

Given these statistics, it seems ludicrous that England players have never been forced to practice their penalties in training and a record of one shoot-out triumph in five major tournament attempts is no coincidence.

However, as recent reports suggest that penalties have now become part of the daily routine in the England camp, I'll refrain from adding the Three Lions' name to negatives list.

Positives: Portugal, Australia

Negatives: Paraguay

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