14/1 FRANCE CAN RULE THE WORLD
Dave Tindall

Even moving the World Cup to a completely different continent four years ago couldn't change the tournament's deep-rooted patterns.

South Korea spectacularly confirmed the belief that host nations have a huge advantage while the final was contested by the two most successful teams in World Cup history - Brazil and Germany.

While previous surprise winners in the European Championships (Czechoslovakia 1976, Denmark 1992) probably helped give Greece the belief that they could follow suit in 2004, that same weight of history seems to undermine underdogs going all the way in the World Cup.

This tournament has virtually become a closed shop whereby plucky outsiders are allowed to get to the semi-finals and no more. Did anyone really doubt which teams would progress to the final when Brazil played Turkey and Germany took on South Korea in the semi-finals four years ago?

So is there any reason why it should be different this time? The Czechs look a bit of value don't they? What about Portgual? Could the Ivory Coast take the Cup back to Africa? Ukraine look dark horses worth backing don't you think?

There may be a semi-finalist in amongst that lot but when it comes to the winner the percentage call says the traditional powerhouses will fight it out between themselves once again.

A lot of punters simply cannot see past Brazil and having won two of the last three World Cups and reached the final inbetween it's easy to see why they're hot favourites to do so again - especially when you look at their supremely talented squad.

I agree to a large extent but just have this suspicion that sometime in the tournament's latter stages - probably the final - someone will pick them off.

One big factor this year is that these Brazilians are consistently being told how marvellous they are.

That's in sharp contrast to the 1994 and 2002 sides who were blasted after poor qualifying campaigns and arrived at the finals with a real point to prove. And, believe it or not, even the magical side of 1970 were being doubted before they arrived in Mexico.

The 2006 Brazil side seem to have more in common with the 1982 and 1998 teams who were expected to win but didn't.

Having said that, it may take until the semis or final to stop them and that's why it makes sense to take a closer look at the draw.

Filling in wallcharts with what might happen can be a pointless exercise but I think it makes sense to see what route Brazil are likely to take.

They're virtually a shoo-in to top their group (Croatia, Japan and Australia) so that helps us plot their path.

First place in the group sets up a second-round contest with the runners-up in Group E (Italy/Czechs/USA/Ghana) before a quarter-final showdown with the winners of Group F (Spain/Ukraine/Tunisia/Saudi Arabia) or the runners-up in Group G (France, Switzerland, South Korea/Togo).

If England have won their group, they could await Brazil in the semis.

I prefer to look at sides who will avoid Brazil until the final, providing they win their groups.

That list includes Italy, France, Germany, Argentina and Holland.

Looking at the odds, the standout for me is France at 14/1.

So let's have a closer look at Les Bleus to try and work out why they're double the odds of England.

France's sluggish qualifying campaign is seen as one of the biggest negatives - a sure sign that this is a side on the wane.

But, wait a minute, I'm looking at the losses column and there's a zero there. France didn't lose a single game.

And while it's de rigeur to drop into World Cup betting conversations that Serbia & Montenegro only conceded one goal in qualifying, no-one ever mentions that the French only let in two.

I don't care if Jean-Alain Boumsong is in their squad. I'm looking at goals conceded and France let in two in 10 qualifiers when the opposition was much stronger than the Serbs had to deal with. Two more shutouts against Mexico and Denmark in their World Cup warm-ups suggests they're one of the hardest sides to score against.

Yes, some of the squad is ageing. But there are some exciting new talents who can inject some freshness. Florent Malouda was lively and scored a cracking goal in the friendly against Mexico while Marseille's Franck Ribery has the potential to emerge as a real star, probably in the role of supersub.

We shouldn't write off the old guard either.

As the tournament progresses the difference between success and failure can be down to the odd moment of brilliance. And while Zinadine Zidane can't run a game from start to finish the way he used to he's still capable of producing the game's defining moment.

Remember Maradona in 1990? He was a shadow of the player who won the World Cup almost single-handedly in 1986 but one flash of the old brilliance against Brazil in the second round helped propel Argentina all the way to the final.

Like Maradona, Zidane has enough solid, quality players alongside to cover for him when he loses the ball and that allows coach Raymond Domenech to indulge his mercurial talents.

Apart from the solid defence and the skills of Zidane in a talented midfield, there's also the firepower up front and Thierry Henry and Louis Saha have the makings of a potent partnership.

Beyond the actual players, there's also the feeling that France are flying under the radar a little. Four years ago they caved in when going into the tournament as defending champions and favourites but expectations are much lower this time and that can only benefit them.

The desire to right the wrong of the 2002 World Cup burns strongly when you hear the French players speak and the booing of Fabien Barthez and Vikash Dhorasoo by the Paris crowd in the friendly win against Mexico can only have fuelled the siege mentality further.

France have won two of the last three major championships held on European soil and, given their easy group (Switzerland, South Korea and Togo) and the fact that they avoid Brazil until the final, Les Bleus are a great bet at 14/1.

While I think England can win the World Cup, there's simply no way France should be twice the odds.

Presuming Wayne Rooney's role is limited, compare the two strikeforces and which would you prefer?

And while we're messing about with Owen Hargreaves and Jamie Carragher in the holding role, France have the best exponent of that crucial job in world football - Claude Makelele.

Like I say, I'm not ruling England out but, as a tipster, the prices make my job easy when deciding whether to go with Sven's men or France.

As well as advising France at 14s, it may also be worth taking a look at the 'Name The Finalists' market as a France v Brazil showdown is an attractive 16/1 with Sporting Odds.

As mentioned, the two can't meet until the final IF they win their groups and that should prove a straightforward task for both.

Having 16s in the bank before France even attempt to land the 14/1 by beating the tournament favourites would be a very pleasant feeling.

Bet Direct's welcome move to bet to four places means it's possible to try and dig out a value semi-finalist - Ukraine and Portugal perhaps.

But I prefer to use the extra payout places as some insurance for a punt on hosts Germany.

Yes, I know this isn't a vintage German side and holes can be picked at will, especially in defence.

But, as I see it, they virtually have a bye to the quarter-finals.

Their group (Poland, Costa Rica, Ecuador) looks a formality and winning it would give them a second round clash against the runners-up of England's group. In my view that will be either Sweden or Paraguay - both very beatable.

One more win (Argentina, Holland, Mexico or Portugal are likely opponents) and the each-way money is secured.

Beyond that, I could even see them fluking their way past France in the semis and possibly setting up a repeat of the 2002 final against Brazil.

There I would have to draw the line and say Brazil's superior quality would win the day so it may pay to return to the 'Name The Finalists' market.

Germany v Brazil is 12/1 at Paddy Power.


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