BECKS A 16/1 CRACKER
Dave Tindall

Roque Santa Cruz says it will take a "miracle" for Paraguay to beat England in Saturday's World Cup opener.

The bookies don't quite see it like that though and surely the odds on Jesus turning water into wine were bigger than the 11/2 being quoted about Paraguay seeing off Sven's men in Frankfurt.

England are clear favourites to start with a win though and Total Bet's best 4/6 was hoovered up on Wednesday morning.

On form and pedigree the best 8/13 over England looks about right but there are clear warning signs for those contemplating an early patriotic punt.

And the biggest is England's simply dreadful record in opening matches in major tournaments.

Look away now if you've already weighed in with a big punt:

2004 Lost 1-2 v France
2002 Drew 1-1 v Sweden
2000 Lost 2-3 v Portugal
1998 Won 2-0 v Tunisia
1996 Drew 1-1 v Switzerland
1992 Drew 0-0 v Denmark
1990 Drew 1-1 v Rep of Ireland
1988 Lost 0-1 v Rep of Ireland
1986 Lost 0-1 v Portugal

So that's played nine, lost four, drawn four and won just one!

At least the draws and defeats all came against European opposition but, even so, the bottom line is that England have a history of starting tournaments slowly.

Paraguay are certainly the sort of side who could frustrate England by packing men behind the ball and they will have taken encouragement from two recent friendlies against European opposition which produced draws with Norway (2-2) and Denmark (1-1).

However, the not-so-secret flaw with the Paraguayans is their inability to cope with set-pieces - a part of the game at which England excel.

Both Norway's goals against Paraguay came from dead-ball deliveries while England scored twice from set-pieces against both Hungary and Jamaica.

So rather than backing England at 8/13, a more interesting way of getting with Sven and co is to focus on the men likely to be involved with England's free-kicks and corners.

John Terry (20/1 to score first, 7/1 anytime) is certainly an option and it's worth noting that another central defender, Sol Campbell, gave England a 1-0 lead in their opening game of the 2002 World Cup.

To be honest, there's a whole number of players who could put the ball in the net from a set-piece (Crouch, Owen, Gerrard, Lampard, Ferdinand) so it may be wise to focus on the man who takes them, David Beckham.

How do we profit though from Beckham's wonderful deliveries?

The answer is the Man-of-the-Match market and I'm flabbergasted to see him at 16/1 at Bet365.

Becks has been in superb form in recent England games and will be busting a gut to show his best on the world stage after his subdued performances in the 2002 finals when half-fit.

Star players have a huge advantage in this sort of market and it's hard to see any of the Paraguay players - except their goalkeeper perhaps - being a serious contender if, as expected, they play it cagey and pack the defence.

A defensive approach from Paraguay increases the chances of England needing a set-piece to break the deadlock and there is no-one better than Beckham at delivering the perfect ball.

Even better, Beckham could curl one into the top corner from a free-kick!

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www.bettingzone.co.uk. With permission.