GERMANY v ECUADOR - FEELGOOD FACTOR POINTS TO HOSTS
Chris Hammer

There is little at stake in Group A's final round of fixtures other than who will advance to the last 16 in top spot but the incentive of avoiding England could add an extra twist.

Germany take on Ecuador needing a victory to leapfrog this summer's surprise nation so far and they will be keen to stay clear of Sven-Goran Eriksson's side who appear likely to finish first in Group A.

Memories of the famous 5-1 drubbing in Munich is still fresh in the mind and, if given the choice, Jurgen Klinsmann would probably decline such an early chance of revenge.

Even the likes of Franz Beckenbauer have echoed these sentiments and regard Sweden as far more appealing opposition (assuming they are unable to make a dramatic improvement to beat England later on Tuesday).

Also as host nation Germany will not want to let their momentum slip following two successive wins and will be desperate to keep the home fires burning amid a sea of patriotism.

As we know from France and South Korea's experiences at the past two World Cups, keeping your country in a jubilant and triumphant mood is imperative for success and must not be overlooked. Poland quite simply crumbled under the daunting atmosphere in Dortmund and it almost seemed like the winning goal was inevitable, no matter how late it came.

Ecuador meanwhile, who make no mistake about it were hugely impressive in their comfortable 2-0 and 3-0 triumphs over Poland and Ecuador respectively, have done the hard part and could well take their foot off the gas for this one, although Luis Suarez has spoken of his intention to go for the win. But then again, which manager wouldn't say that?

The South Americans will no doubt be tough to break down, as the Poles found out to their frustration, but Germany's nature to relentlessly press forward down both wings and deliver dangerous balls into the box will be too much even for Ivan Hurtado, who has been simply outstanding at the back.

That said the Germans proved against Costa Rica they can all too easily be exposed at the back and with Christoph Metzelder doubtful with a knee injury expect the red-hot duo of Agustin Delgado and Carlos Tenorio to be handed opportunities to add to their goal tallies.

Overall we can be confident Germany will win the game but given their inconsistent defence the scoreline could range from 1-0 to 3-2, so the best betting strategy could be to back the hosts at half-time/full time which is available at 11/10.

In the man-of-the-match market, Germany's star player and captain Michael Ballack, who is now back to full fitness, looks the obvious wager at 3/1 but with one booking to his name he may hold back somewhat.

Therefore a clever saver bet could be on Hurtado to pick up the award at 18/1 which is a likely verdict if his side defy the odds and hold out for a creditable draw.

In the group's other game, Costa Rica will be battling it out with Poland for the small matter of which manager will keep his job!

The Poles have let their people down for the second World Cup in a row having lost two out of two and now Pawel Janas' future looks bleak after his country's Football Association indicated he faces the sack if they lose to the Central Americans.

Four years ago they were humiliated by South Korea and Portugal but in their last game they sent their fans home with a slight smile on their face with a meaningless 3-1 win over the United States.

This time Janas' side have far more supporters to appease and this could be the deciding factor on Tuesday even if it has yet to work in their favour so far.

The Costa Ricans are also devastated to book their plane so early after defeat to Ecuador and now Alexandre Guimaraes also fears dismissal as national coach if he returns home with no points.

With both bosses suffering from the same motivation to avoid defeat, we feel Poland have the quality to click now the pressure is off.

There were signs there defence had regained some confidence having held out until the last minute against Germany and at least Costa Rica's rearguard, which has leaked seven goals already, should be far easier to breach.

With this in mind we feel the best bet would be to back Poland to win by two or more goals at 23/10 on Bet365.

Also at 6/1 to win man of the match, Maciej Zurawski is more than likely to be in the running should this result occur as he will no doubt at least have had a hand in the goals, and quite possibly scored himself.

ENGLAND v SWEDEN MATCH PROGRAMME

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By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.