Group A Permutations
Qualifiers: Germany and Ecuador, who play against each other to decide top spot.
Had it been any other group then their would be little interest in the final games in Group A. With Ecuador and Germany already qualified the only thing those two have to battle for is who will finish top of the group. However with England's next opponents dependent on where these two sides finish then there is a considerable English dynamic to the final round of matches.
The benefit for England is that they will know exactly what result is required against the Swedes to avoid the Germans and thus guarantee an easier potential passage through to the Final. The game between Poland and Costa Rica meanwhile is a match to decide who will get the wooden spoon whose only function is the negation of embarrassment for the two nations involved.
Both Germany and Ecuador are on a high at the moment, with perhaps the South Americans being slightly more ecstatic. The majority of pundits had expected them to finish bottom of the group but they have excelled themselves with their range of fluid attacking football and midfield tightness. It was this combination that saw off both Poland and Costa Rica, notching up five goals in the process and not conceding any.
In Barcelona's Agustin Delgado the Ecuardoians have a player of world-class ability. He terrorised the Poles, scoring one and setting up the other with a deft headed flick. A potent threat in the six-yard box, Delgado has an acute sense of positioning in the opponent's box and it is this that has led him to score thirty goals for his country. He is aslo quick to the ball as well and can make incisive runs that could scare the Germans.
It has been widely publicised that the Germans are not the force that they used to be in World Football. Relegated to nineteenth in the FIFA World Rankings says it all but with home advantage and six points out of six themselves, they have plenty to threaten their South American adversaries. Rarely a side of this quality can have two off-days in front of goal so do not expect the lack of tooth up front that was displayed against Poland to repeat itself here.
The Germans have been schizophrenic so far in this World Cup. They scored four wonder-strikes against Costa Rica on the opening day but could not defend at all, allowing Paulo Wanchope through twice for two soft (albeit well-taken) goals. Meanwhile against Poland they defended well but could not find the back of the net until Oliver Neuville's late late strike. The Borussia Dortmund forward is often on the bench these days, at thirty-three years old he lacks the pace that is perceived to be necessary in this German team. He also only has seven goals to his name, which is not a good return on over fifty appearances.
It is youth that is preferred to him, in the shape of Cologne striker Lukas Podolski. With ten goals in twenty-four appearances he is a good bet to score here against Ecuador, particularly as he will be yearning to break his World Cup duck. He is also a good summer buy as he will be desperate to escape from a club that has just been relegated from the Bundesliga. So he needs to put on a good show and in this group decider there is no better stage.
Do not expect Germany to keep a clean sheet however, despite their result against the Poles. They were rarely tested by their European neighbours and you feel Ecuador, with five goals in two games, will be far more of an attacking threat. With midfielder Edison Mendez pulling the strings the form of this stalwart is vital if the Ecuadorians are to achieve a positive result in the German capital.
Ecuador will also start with striker Ivan Kaviedes in place of Carlos Tenorio. The twenty-eight year old forward will feel he has a lot to prove to Ecuador coach Luis Fernando Suarez after being overlooked in favour of Tenorio in the opening two games. Kaviedes has the better goalscoring record so he will be looking to make a point here.
Ecuador are in bullish mood going into this game, with Suarez refusing to alter his attacking style of play. Citing their triumphs against Brazil and Argentina in qualifying he believes he can get the better of Germany and top the Group. They already have the advantage as with a better goal difference, a draw will see the South Americans top the group.
The other game in the group is incidental and only really of any interest to fans of Poland and Costa Rica. Poland, usually a tight resiliant unit, surprised many with their capitulation against Ecuador. They can consider themselves unfortunate to concede a last minute goal against Germany in their second group game, but not unlucky after the Germans dominated the game.
After scaring Germany, Costa Rica have done very little. They were humiliated against the vastly more technical Ecuadorians. They were behind after eight minutes and never recovered from the setback. It was a lack of cutting edge that let them down, with Paolo Wanchope, so impressive against Germany, anonymous for much of the game. Costa Rica coach Coach Alexandre Guimaraes cited missed chances as the reason for their swift exit from the competition. He is however determined to at least finish third in this group and names an unchanged side to face Poland in Hanover.
Seven goals conceded in two games means that even Poland, with their toothless attack may be able to muster a goal against the Central American outfit. Poland are yet to score a goal in this tournament and a dull stalemate looks the most likely result here. Celtic striker Maciej Zurawski has been disappointing, despite his fifteen international goals, and has failed to take his club form into this World Cup. However Poland have been unlucky, hitting the woodwork twice in their games to date. They should have taken something from the game against Ecuador but two swift counter-attacks rendered their endeavours pointless.
Poland are beset by injuries and suspensions. Bartosz Bosacki is doubtful after an injury sustained against Germany so the relatively inexperienced Mariusz Jop is likely to get a run out. Radoslaw Sobolewski is suspended whilst Poland are likely to start with many younger players in order to get big-match experience.
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At last, we have a World Cup match with suitable odds for an arbitrage preview. And there'll be a lot more of these coming up as the games become ever increasingly tougher to call.
For those who are unfamiliar with the arbitrage system, we are going to back the three different possible outcomes of the match with three different bookies. We will show a very small loss of less than £20.00 when the game is over but we will qualify for up to a staggering £225.00 in bonuses and free bets, just for using the accounts.
The whole system hinges on the bonuses and free bets that you get so you can't do this if you already have an account at one or more of our chosen bookies. If that is the case, let me know and I'll try to find you an alternative bookie.
1. Open Your New Accounts
Open an account with
Open an account with Total Bet and make a deposit of £70.
Open an account with Bet 365 and make a deposit of £55.
You have temporarily laid out a total of £200. I stress temporarily...
2. Place Your Bets
Back England with £75 @ 11/8 with
Back the draw with £70 @ 17/10 with Total Bet.
Back Sweden with £55 @ 12/5 with Bet 365.
3. Collect Your Winnings
If England win you will collect £180.12 from
If it's a draw you will collect £189.12 from Total Bet, including your original stake back.
If Sweden win, you will collect £187.00 from Bet 365, including your original stake back.
As you will have noticed, you will make an initial loss on the match of between £11.00 or £19.82. Here comes the best bit...
4. Collect Your Bonuses
If England win,
Your new accounts with Total Bet and Bet 365 will each be credited with free bets of £25.00 each, with another £100 to follow as you place further bets.
5. The Summary
You are about to lay out £200 for the duration of the match and whatever the result, you will end up temporarily down by between £1.00 and £19.82. I stress temporarily...
You will collect free bets of an initial £50.00 and further free bets worth £100 to follow, as you use your new accounts, plus the £100 bonus from
If you don't think that England will win and would like the bet reworking so that the
Too good to be true? Well here's the catch for you. If you follow the instructions to the letter and it doesn't happen like we say it will, then we will refund any losses that you make. No strings, no catches, just a straight refund of your losses if you don't make what we say you will make.
As with any offer, there are obviously terms and conditions attached, available on the relevant sites. There is nothing unusual about the t's & c's from our chosen three companies but you should have a read anyway. And you should especialy read the Bet 365 offer conditions because there's a lot of information in there. We've reproduced them on our Bet 365 page.
If you already have one or more accounts with our chosen bookies, you won't be able to qualify for the free bets, which is what this whole thing hinges on. But don't worry. Just drop us a quick email and we will try to find you an alternative bookie.
Finally, the odds can change and even though this is rare, you should check them before placing your bets.
Don't forget that if this doesn't work for you, we will refund any losses that you make, provided that you follow the instructions to the letter and are not already an existing account holder at one or more of the three bookies that we have chosen.
Please feel free to mail us with any questions that you may have. We'll get back to you well before the match.
Harry Haverton
NB: YOU MUST CLICK ON THE BANNERS OR LINKS ON THIS PAGE TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR THE REFUND GUARANTEE.
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