ENGLAND v SWEDEN - ENGLAND CAN KEEP IT CLEAN
Jonathan Turner

There's clearly a fundamental problem in trying to come up with a betting strategy on England v Sweden on Tuesday night before we know what the final outcome in Group A is.

By the time the players take to the field in Cologne at 2000BST they'll know the finishing order of Germany and Ecuador at the top of that section.

England know a win or a draw against Sweden will see them take on the runners-up.

A victory for the Swedes is the only way they can finish top while a draw at least guarantees them second place - but a defeat would leave them anxiously awaiting news of how Trinidad & Tobago are getting on in the other Group B clash against Paraguay in Kaiserslautern.

For a side that has been lambasted in the press, things could be going a lot worse for England.

They've won both World Cup matches so far, not conceded a goal, are seeking a ninth successive victory in total and also have their key man in Wayne Rooney back in the starting line-up for the first time since March.

Of course it's been the manner of England's successes against Paraguay and Trinidad & Tobago which has set the alarm bells ringing.

For they've rarely looked fluent and have lacked a cutting edge on the odd occasion when chances have been created, with Michael Owen still nowhere near 100% which is hardly surprising given that he's completed 90 minutes just once in 2006.

At the time of writing it appears there is going to be an advantage in finishing top of the group and despite resting Steven Gerrard as he's on a yellow card there's unlikely to be any let-up from England.

Peter Crouch, also cautioned in that first game, is also likely to be on the bench to allow first-choice strike pertnership Owen and Rooney to build up their match-sharpness.

And the good news for England is that Sweden have been far from impressive themselves in this tournament, being held to a draw by Trinidad & Tobago before Freddie Ljungberg's header - their only goal at the finals so far - gave them a last-gasp win over Paraguay.

They've probably also got to manage without striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic who is battling a groin problem so the bulk of the problems are with them.

The bad news though is England's record against the Swedes - not a single win in 38 years which spans 11 matches.

This is Sven-Goran Eriksson's last chance to put that right against the country of his birth but odds of around 6/4 about England make little appeal for a match they don't have to win and against a side they've failed to get the better of since 1968.

If forced into a bet we'd got for the draw at 7/4 as both outfits are struggling to score goals and a stalemate will send them both through.

However, given what could happen in Group A, now simply isn't the time to be tipping or backing a draw between England and Sweden. It will be a different matter if the Germans come out on top - if they do then you'll need to be quick to snap up that 7/4.

A more sensible option at this stage though is the 7/4 chalked up by BetFred about England keeping a third successive clean sheet.

John Terry - whose central defensive partnership with Rio Ferdinand is rock-solid - has spoken in the build-up about not conceding a goal all tournament.

That's obviously highly unlikely but against a Sweden side which has managed just one goal in 180 minutes of football against Trinidad & Tobago and Paraguay - and is now without one of their main strikers - it's a distinct possibility.

Indeed anyone who is expecting a gung ho approach from Sweden hasn't taken on board coach Lars Lagerback's comments. "England are always a tough team to play," he admitted. They have quality in all positions. We will try to stick to our way of playing, defend as much as we can. When you play at this level you have to control the game. You cannot attack too much."

At the other end of the pitch we've already mentioned that Owen and Rooney are understandably not at their most lethal in front of goal yet.

That means there's more emphasis on the midfielders getting into scoring positions which makes the 9/2 about Joe Cole finding the net a stand-out price.

Cole is arguably England's most improved player this season and he's now likely to get even more licence to roam forward against the Swedes as Owen Hargreaves will come in for Gerrard and play the holding role in front of the back four.

Indeed there's talk that Eriksson could employ the diamond system in midfield, with Cole at its apex just behind Owen and Rooney, which would also be in our favour.

He scored twice in qualifying and has continued to impress in Germany so given the circumstances of this match that looks worth an interest.

Moving on to the night's other game between Trinidad & Tobago and Paraguay there's a temptation to get with the Caribbean side at 10/3.

They showed their goalless draw with Sweden wasn't a fluke by pushing England all the way and it shouldn't be forgotten either that they went desperately close to scoring against the Three Lions.

A victory would put them in with a chance of qualifying if Sweden are beaten by England whereas Paraguay have nothing to play for after two defeats.

Of course that can work both ways in that the pressure is all on Dwight Yorke's side while Paraguay have nothing to lose and are making all the right noises about going out on a high.

But it's not as if there's a gulf between these two on the FIFA rankings (33rd compared to 47th) or, more importantly, on what we've seen so far in Germany.

So, with all the motivation they could want, Trinidad & Tobago might just be worth a small interest.

BACK TO WORLD CUP INDEX PAGE

By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.