IRAN v ANGOLA, MEXICO v PORTUGAL - DRAW THE RIGHT CONCLUSION
Chris Hammer

With Portugal already guaranteed a place in the last 16 with two wins out of two, the battle is on for the decisive second spot in Group D which Mexico are expected to take ahead of Angola.

As it stands, Los Tricolores have four points and meet the Portuguese for their final match in Gelsenkirchen while the Africans trail by three and now face the relatively easier opposition of Iran.

However games like this are obviously harder to predict given a goal at either venue will affect the tactics and urgency levels of every team and therefore it is perhaps more advisable to use in-running betting tactics.

For example if Mexico and Portugal are still all-square after 60 minutes, or even at half-time, you can almost bet your bottom dollar it will stay that way. Not due to foul play mind, but there would be no reason for either side to bust a gut risking injuries and suspension when qualification to the next round is assured.

Portugal's side of the bargain is they get first place in the group and potentially avoid meeting Argentina, who have already won the World Cup in some punters' eyes following their ruthless performance against Serbia and Montenegro.

Mexico will just be relieved to reach the knock-out phase once again after the frustrating 0-0 draw with Angola put their fate in the balance.

Meanwhile in Leipzig, Angola may finally release their defensive shackles and actually decide to launch an attack if they hear the Mexicans are struggling.

But taking a step back to look at the situation, for Ricardo La Volpe's side not to go through, the Black Antelopes will have to do something they have yet to achieve so far this summer - score a goal.

The African side's stubborn defensive set-up has not been breached since the fifth minute of their opening match with Portugal and if the likes of Joao Jamba, Luis Delgado and Manuel Loco pull out another tireless battling performance, Iran will find it increasingly difficult to break their duck.

But Angola do lack the required cutting edge up front and this could well be the factor which prevents them from picking up the all-important three points which are needed to pip Mexico should they lose to the Portuguese.

Apart from the creativity of Paulo Figueiredo, Angola pose little threat in forward positions and Benfica starlet Pedro 'Mantorras' Manuel must now be given his chance to start alongside Fabrice Akwa.

However, although they technically have no choice but to go for it, this will hamper their defensive qualities and play into Iran's hands.

Branko Ivankovic's side may have lost both previous games but they have shown glimpses of flair up front and look dangerous on the counter-attack with the inspirational Mehdi Mahdavikia and Andranik Teymourian so often pulling the strings.

But almost a polar opposite to Angola, the Iranians also demonstrated they are liable to switch off in defence at key moments and this is ultimately why they are heading home regardless of what happens in Wednesday's clash.

If this had been the first or second game of the group stage, the result would have probably ended up 0-0 given both sides' contrasting strengths cancelling each other out, but now there is every chance the Angolans will throw caution to the wind.

Most bookies make Angola marginal favourites to win this match purely on the basis they still have a chance to qualify but we feel they will leave themselves exposed at the back as they concentrate their efforts on attack and Iran, at 8/5, have nothing to lose and will pick them off to end their dreams.

But an extremely eye-catching option is to back Mahdavikia at a staggering 9/1 with Coral to score anytime. The versatile Hamburg playmaker, who takes a number of set-pieces, is one of the best players to come out of Iran and he's frequently been involved in many of their attacking moves so far this summer.

But back to the group dynamics and Angola probably won't qualify even if they do win because of the situation with Mexico and Portugal.

Let's be honest we would all feel rather foolish if we bet on anything other than a draw only to see both sides play out a tame stalemate.

Betdirect offer the best price of 7/4 about the draw but if those odds are too short for you, another option is to bet the scores will be level at half-time and full-time which is available at 3/1.

And finally, if it's the defensive game we expect with few chances, then back Rafael Marquez to win the man-of-the-match award at 15/2 with Paddy Power.

The Champions League winner with Barcelona has stood out in every one of Mexico's games so far and if he marshals his side into the last 16, then FIFA look sure to reward him with the accolade.

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By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.