GERMANY v ARGENTINA - ARGENTINA CAN RUIN HOST'S PARTY
Jonathan Turner

It's the match of the quarter-finals as hosts Germany take on Argentina, the side who've played the best football in the tournament so far.

And we reckon it's also produced the bet of the last-eight stage, with the Argentinians massive value at 9/5 to win inside 90 minutes.

That's because there seems to have been a huge over-reaction to what Germany have achieved so far.

They might have won every game (and not conceded in their last three) to get the nation firmly behind them but it's when we put their matches into context that question marks suddenly start to emerge.

For the group stage only saw them brush aside two poor sides in Poland and Costa Rica and then account for an already-qualified Ecuador team, who rested five of their key players.

Sweden were expected to present more of a test in the last 16 but simply didn't turn up and the Germans took full advantage, going 2-0 up inside the first quarter of an hour and then facing just ten men for the bulk of the match.

The Swedes posed virtually no threat up front, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic completely ineffective and even Henrik Larsson - who blasted a penalty way over the bar - also nowhere near his best.

That leaves us with no option to treat their results with extreme caution - especially as they have a dreadful record in recent years against the elite sides in world football - even though they have clearly improved as the tournament has progressed.

They've ditched the ludicrous way they tried to play the offside trap in the opening game against Costa Rica which has made them stronger defensively while at the other end they have two strikers in Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski who are flying.

But the impression that they haven't really been put under pressure is reinforced by the stats from that Sweden game when Germany were allowed to unleash a staggering 29 shots, 13 of which were on target.

There's no way they are going to be given anything like as much leeway - or be allowed to win possession so easily - against Argentina.

For the Albicelestes have undoubtedly been the team of the tournament so far, qualifying in style from a group which featured Holland, the Ivory Coast and Serbia & Montenegro.

Their 6-0 demolition of the last-named side was a simply stunning performance - but so too was their extra-time victory against a technically superb Mexico in the last 16.

The fact that they had to work so hard to see off the Mexicans appears to have dampened down the expectations slightly but that shouldn't have been a great surprise as Ricardo La Volpe's side have caused their South American rivals plenty of problems in the recent past.

Offensively Argentina have been awesome, scoring ten goals already including arguably the best two of the tournament via Maxi Rodriguez and Esteban Cambiasso.

And their strength in depth as an attacking force is underlined by Lionel Messi, Carlos Tevez and Pablo Aimar being the three players they were able to bring off the bench against Mexico!

If there is a doubt about them then it's at the back where Nicolas Burdisso has been missed since injuring his right knee in the draw with Holland.

Fabricio Coloccini, who replaced him in that match, and former West Ham loanee Lionel Scaloni, who filled in against Mexico, haven't looked anything like as solid so the return of the Inter man would be a big boost.

And while we fully expect Argentina to emerge triumphant there's a strong chance this could prove to be one of the games of the tournament given the attacking policy of both sides.

There's absolutely no reason to expect either to suddenly change now - especially Germany - and with that in mind it's a surprise there's plenty of odds-against about over 2.5 goals in the game.

Paddy Power are tops with their 5/4 quote which looks well worth an interest.

Germany's shoot-on-sight policy reached a new level against Sweden with those 29 attempts and they've had an incredible 85 in total in their four games so far which also makes the goal yardage quotes on the spreads worth a second glance.

Sporting quote 30-33 which looks a fraction low when you throw into the equation Argentina's capabilities from distance such as Rodriguez's wonder-strike against Mexico and Juan Riquelme's set-piece expertise.

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By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.