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THE TEN GAME TEST PART ONE 22-10-07
John Powls
Why "The Ten Game Test"? Well it's often said - and with some evidence to back it up - that where you are after ten games, with just over a quarter of the season gone, is a solid predictor of where you'll finish.
How do we read and analyse the results of Boro's Ten Game Test then? And what do we do about it?
Let's start with the stats:
P 10 W 2 D 2 L 6 F 10 A 18 Pts 8 Position 17th
(Spurs in eighteenth have a game in hand at the time of writing so Boro could be in the bottom three come the end of the day)
We are out of the Carling Cup at the first serious hurdle, though that's an improvement on last season.
Now here's another stat that speaks volumes: The Chelski game was the tenth League game of the season. It is one that we've won in the past two seasons against one of the top Premiership sides and the weather on Saturday was fine. The attendence? 27,699. Our home average Premiership crowd in a run that includes two local derbies is less than 26,000.
What those stats say is, quite clearly, relegation battle. And whilst Gareth and Gibson are still in love with MFC, many others who love Boro are reluctant to be drawn back to The Riverside. What makes it worse is that they still would be even if they weren't watching a run of defeats.
Even by Gate's admission we are conceding too many. We often give teams an early goal start, as we have in our last four, or a late goal. At the other end we are not scoring anywhere near enough and, latterly, hardly at all. We have played some decent stuff in the middle third going forward but in the defensive and attacking thirds we've been awful.
Most pundits and hacks - even the few who are usually empathetic - give a resigned shrug when asked about our performances and prospects. "I fear for them" is about as good as it gets.
Before the Chelski game (and before the clocks have gone back) we even had our first player saying "Our season begins here" - as usual neglecting the fact that everyone else started in August. And for the first time this season, after the Chelski game, Gate questioned the players' motivation in public.
My prediction at the start of the season was twelfth or a little higher if we did well in the transfer window. This now looks heroic!
So what are the problems and the pluses?
What about the injuries?
Well, yes, we've suffered - and probably more than most - but how much of what we've suffered is self-inflicted?
Firstly, there are many who believe that the club's fitness and training regimes are deficient and lead not only to us being outfought on the pitch but also to more injuries and slower recovery rates than are necessary.
People will point to the Hurworth facilities and the Woody experience whilst others will argue that the facilities are of no use if those who deploy them don't have the know how. They point out that Woody has his own medical and fitness people rather than the Club's.
Whatever, we seem less physically robust than most Premiership sides. This is a distinct disadvantage for a side that has fewer than most of the six foot plus skilled athletes that are now the stock body image of the Premiership player.
The second self-infliction is around the squad size and quality in key positions. Few would argue with most of the pruning of the dead wood that Gate did during the summer and would have hoped that Mendi had joined the exodus.
But many would also argue that we are short of numbers in key positions, particularly up front and in central midfield. We had chances to remedy that in the transfer window but didn't. This has left us desperately short when injuries struck when we shouldn't have been.
Gate has said just today that, "We know we need to strengthen in all areas but we've got what we've got for the next ten games and we have to get them playing." Not what was said when the window closed but it's the truth, at least.
We have the absences for the African Cup Of Nations to consider too.
How have the squad we've got performed?
Well, there are pluses and minuses. This season we seem to be almost a negative of ourselves from last season - better on the flanks but the spine of our side isn't working.
I think we have strengthened on the right flank. Luke Young has been a little in and out but has shown enough to believe he will fit the bill with Tony Mc to back him.
O'Neil was a late but excellent addition. Along with Stewie he has been consistently our best player and if he can find the goal touch he had at Pompey then so much the better. But I think that we may well find O'Neil coming inside to fill the yawning gap we have in box-to-box midfield - see below.
I think Tuncay will find his best position on the right flank as it's where he used to play his best stuff for Fenerbahce and is also where he plays for his country. His physical slightness would matter less there and his eye for a clever run and a neat pass would fit well - if we had someone to find him with a pass. His attitude and pining for Fenerbahce in the harshness of an English winter with Champions' League on Sky may need to be addressed.
I still believe that one of the two big midfield mistakes in the transfer window was to let Mozza go - but that's water under the bridge now.
Stewie is still doing well on the left but would do better with Arca inside him or possibly, with Arca injured, could have come inside himself if Johnno hadn't been loaned to The Hornets. This was midfield transfer mistake number two but at least we can do something about this one.
Tayls is still mostly doing well for us and for the U21's but will have the dips in form and confidence that go with his age. We have no cover and can't afford to rest him occasionally. This is a priority for January.
It's down the middle that the problems have surfaced. Let's start at the back.
Old Skippy Scissorhands isn't playing that badly but then he isn't setting the world alight either. Like a lot of Premiership goalies he's a reasonable shot stopper but doesn't command his box as he should and is culpable with the rest of the defence for very poor defending of corners and set pieces.
We're about to get on the contract resign merry-go-round with the big Aussie in the Budgie kit and we all know where that will end up. Jonah isn't the answer and Ross Turnbull is an unknown quantity but one who hasn't yet inspired on loan. A good goalie is a priority in January.
In the centre of the back four we started with an injury crisis (see above). That allowed Wheats to come through and he did well for us but he was beginning to show his lack of Premiership experience at the time we were able to replace him with Riggott. He'll be back and is a useful reserve/sub and longer term prospect.
Sadly I think that Woody's form since his return has been a big disappointment, as has been the lack of what he certainly did for us last season, which was to marshall the others. Riggs' form has dropped too - even when alongside Woody as he seems to miss Woody's direction more than most.
Our biggest miss has been Pogo, not just for his defending but also for his eyeballs out, body on the line, 'they shall not pass' attitude which inspired others and the crowd. This made up for his lack of pace and subtlety, often cruelly exposed at left back, and made him a perfect foil for the more cultured Woody. Hurry back!
As for Huth - the joke's wearing a bit thin - no sign of a return on the horizon and we're all just waiting for another 'setback'. Are the rumours that the Club are trailing a young Danish central defender an indication that the insurance policy is about to be dusted off?
So defensively we've got potential strengths and current shortcomings. The back five is certainly one contributor as to why we're shipping goals but what about the other - the central midfield?
The midfield
The centre is neither shielding the back four nor breaking up opposition attacks and starting ours. They leave our already shaky defenders exposed to both the opposition strikers and attacking midfielders.
But neither are they taking the ball from our back four and driving on at pace, providing the killer passes or getting beyond our strikers and scoring.
Arca is a genuine loss, both for creativity and left/right balance, but even he is prone to losing the ball and exposing our defence.
I still don't see the point of Rocky at all - he's slow of thought and action, prone to lose the ball in dangerous areas, miss tackles and give away silly free-kicks. For every decent ball he plays there are many more that go astray and for every decent free-kick taken many more fly wide or plough into the wall.
In the 'engine room' The Boat, sadly, is past his sell-by date as player and Captain and Catts has strengths and shortcomings of his own - he is still young and raw. I have said before that if we could nail them together we'd have one good one.
Shawky has the reputation, mostly from his International experience, but seems not to be ready yet for the rigours of the Premiership. When will he be?
For all of these reasons I would favour pulling O'Neil into the right-sided central midfield slot, at least until January. He has the engine, the drive and the perseverance, with Tuncay wide right. If we're still short then we may need to buy again.
If Woody pulls the digit out I'd make him captain, if not I'd give it to O'Neil as he's likely to be the best on-field example and, as a new kid on the block, he should not be encumbered with old allegiances.
What of the attack?
Whatever the reasons behind the departure of Veruka, and though getting shot of The Yak for a big fee was good business, we have not replaced the goals of both or the quality of the Australian.
Tuncay has many qualities but fifteen goals a season in this League is not amongst them. Aliadiere has never notched a Premiership goal and still hasn't scored for us. Yes he's got pace but, as yet, there's no end product either in goals or supply. I think, at best, he will be an impact player, coming on around the hour mark, perhaps for Tuncay, when his pace will count against tiring defences.
Simba must be left out of the squad as soon as we have enough fit to do so. I don't believe he's ever going to make it in the Premiership but to give him a chance he has to have a run in the reserves before January to try to 'case harden' him to English football and see if he can knock a few in and build his confidence. If it doesn't work he should go.
Craddock and Hutchinson show promise but it's too early for them, except as regular subs or in extremis. I've also seen the 'make Wheats another Hickton' stuff which just goes to show how desperate we are.
Mido started well and has the quality of control and touch that would get near to Veruka but now he's started missing the sort of chances a good Premiership striker should bury. He needs a regular partner who can complement his style and get his share of goals. With that I believe he can do a job for us. He also needs to rediscover the belligerence and impatience with poor play or lack of effort that so endeared us to him in his first couple of games.
We had the opportunity to buy another goalscorer in August and didn't. That is proved to be a bigger and bigger error with every week that goes by. It must be remedied in January and the preparation must be done now so we can secure an early signing.
When all are fit the squad is, overall, better than last season but still short in key areas.
CLICK HERE FOR PART TWO OF THE TEN GAME TEST
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John Powls is a published poet with five books of his work in print. He is a regular performer of his work at major literary festivals and exhibitions in the UK and America, often working with musicians, painters with photographer Carol Ballenger.
Check out Red Shoes 250 for more of John Powls, right here.
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