STEW'S PREVIEWS
MIDDLESBROUGH v LEICESTER CITY
Stewart Flaherty, 29 Sep 2009
BORO EYE VIEW
The good news is that Boro are firmly in the promotion race.
"10 games in" was the shout from many fans who wanted a yard stick for Southgate to be measured by. At least, this was the shout from those fans who had not already written him off on the basis of relegation.
After this game, the best case scenario is that we will be third (I am writing off a seven goal swing in goal difference for second place).
The worst case scenario will see us out of the play-off spots should we lose and everyone including Watford wins.
Column Continues Below...
As we knew would be the case in this league, what a difference one game can make.
The fact that this is a home game against a team that is on the fringes of the play-off race makes it more important than ever that Middlesbrough get three points.
Another issue, and one that the staff and players would be naïve to ignore, is our lack of solidity.
Gareth was shouted down by many for saying that we would need "two goals a game" to progress out of this league.
"Where will 92 goals come from?" many asked.
Well, nine games in and 16 goals have been scored. Quite frankly, it is not that ambitious an ask.
It is interesting to note that our away goals tally more than doubles our home goals tally. However, our attacking threat is very real and a big plus.
The concern is goals shipped, and late goals as well. This may suggest an underlying lack of ability to focus and close games out with the ruthless edge that is required of champions.
This is not just my opinion, this is the reality of what is happening. Consider the following events, all of which have happened since Robert Huth left:
A 91st minute winning goal conceded at Bristol.
A 96th minute goal conceded against Ipswich. Yes, we were 3-0 up, but did we switch off?
A five goal meltdown against West Brom, after which our captain stated that after the 31st minute, he felt it "wouldn't be our day."
A 95th minute equaliser conceded against Coventry and a two goal lead thrown away.
There are not the actions of a strong team. As it's still early days, it can be turned around, but will it be?
Sport Psychology talks about the "thermostat effect." When things get bad and our backs are against the wall, people have a good ability to analyse and correct mistakes and focus on self improvement. This is like when a room is too cold and a thermostat kicks in until it is heated up to a comfortable level.
However, this works the other way around too. Sometimes we do not have the same sense of urgency to improve and fight when we are in the comfort zone. Here, the thermostat clicks off and we just let things be stable.
Will the staff and players think fourth place is good enough and ignore these weaknesses as, overall, things are good?
Or will we hold ourselves to high standards, realise that we need and want more, and focus on becoming a solid defensive unit?
This is the only way we will win this league.
Talking about confidence in defence is just that. talk.
The only way we will have true belief late in the season, when promotion is on the line, is if we have a number of positive performances and clean sheets to call upon as reasons for genuine belief.
We need not only to win, we need to stop leaking goals.
I somehow doubt an opposition unit led by Nigel Pearson will be as fragile.
LEICESTER EYE VIEW
It is a return for Big Nige and I hope he gets a standing ovation. The man is a Boro Legend. Many may find that high praise but he captained us through our transition in becoming an established Premier League team, and was faultless in his commitment to the cause.
Luckily, he isn't playing and I do not imagine they will be brimming with confidence in terms of leaving the Riverside with three points.
Seeing that they have yet to record an away win this season, I am sure that a draw would suit them, particularly as it would keep them within touching distance of the play-off spots.
OVERVIEW
Leicester are a newly promoted team that is in the play-off mish mash. Boro must beat teams like these at home or they will be sucked into the crowd and automatic promotion will become a distant wish.
Goalkeepers
The stability that I and many fans had hoped for is gone, and it appears that the fight for the jersey is on again.
If Gareth preferred Jones all along, and viewed Coyne merely as the hot hand, then the West Brom game was the perfect tipping point to put his faith back in the Australian international.
Time will tell who the long-term keeper is but Jones has many doubters to win over in the crowd.
Many teams in this division have good keepers and many I rate more highly than both Jones and Coyne. Chris Weale, however, is not one of them.
Let's play a game, shall we? See if you can describe my opinion of the Leicester keeper by rearranging the following two words into a phrase: Average. Bang.
Edge: Boro. An Australian international, even if significantly worse than Schwarzer, I will take above Weale.
Boro Defence v Leicester Attack
I have concerns which grow with every late goal conceded about the ruthless mentality of our young back-line.
Who is the leader? Who truly believes that a clean sheet will come as he has been there and done it?
We need to establish an identity as a unit and we have not done that yet. The shuffling of the full-backs suggests that Gareth may be tinkering to find the best balance.
St. Ledger did well with his goal, but I would much rather see him patrol around the halfway line forming a barrier that Leicester will struggle to get behind.
For all the talk of the drop off in talent in this "long ball" league, it is just not true, is it?
Every week we see a player of true quality and many players could step up and do a job in the Premier League from this division (see the success of Stephen Hunt and James Beattie for proof of this).
Matt Fryatt is one of those players. He is a real class act who banged in 31 goals last season.
Can he do it in the higher level of the Championship? Eight goals so far suggests the answer is yes.
He is partnered, and likely mentored, by the massively experienced Steve Howard, who also gives the physical presence many fear we lack.
Ex-Blackburn man Paul Gallagher rounds off the attack.
Edge: Leicester. Fryatt is a pest and we may have flaky confidence along the back.
Midfield
Digard appears to inch closer to his return, and the game in which we line up with him and O'Neil in centre-mid I will be very excited to see.
The only barrier between that pair and domination at this level is injuries, which seem so common that it is hard to imagine them having a 15-20 game run together.
Johnson remains a threat and Yeates is grafting away.
I thought that the midfield would be a potential problem this season, but they have exceeded expectations and we have looked very good at times.
Rhys Williams is proving able, and he will be needed due to the injuries but close your eyes and imagine Digard's passing and O'Neil's relentless energy. Good, innit?!
Matt Oakley is an excellent player, and is the leader and engine of this team. Oakley played over 300 games for Southampton, the vast majority of them in the Premier League, and achieved promotion to the Premier League with Derby. He is a class act at this level.
Richie Wellens will join Oakley in the engine room and is an ex-Manchester United product.
The speedy N'Guessan attacks from out wide and already has a couple of goals to his name this year.
Edge: Boro. We create many chances and O'Neil adds enough bite to make us a unit to be reckoned with in this division.
Boro Attack v Leicester Defence
Folan is out so Boro look set to field Aliadiere and Lita up top. I personally like that pair and believe they have goals in them, as well as pace to burn.
Aleksander Tunchev has 15 Bulgarian caps and is the leader of a unit that also includes heavily experienced Wayne Brown and Switzerland international Bruno Berner.
Edge: Boro. Nowadays, I feel like we need to score two to win and I think we will here.
Fans
This may open up some wounds for Boro fans.
Many fear we will fall from former established Premier League force and League Cup winners to perennial lower division also-rans. And aren't Leicester not the poster boys for that club model?!
The only way to show we are not to fall to that level is to consistently win, and we must do so here.
I fear a small mid-week gate but hopefully what is there will get behind the crew.
And please, any fans reading who will be at the game, APPLAUD BIG NIGE LIKE THE LEGEND HE IS!
Verdict
WIN. If we do not beat teams like this at home, we are doomed to a year long scrap to finish in the play-offs.
