STEW'S PREVIEWS
MIDDLESBROUGH v SCUNTHORPE UNITED
Stewart Flaherty, 26 Dec 2009
BORO EYE VIEW
The 'post Christmas slump' has long been feared by Middlesbrough fans but a kind fixture
list should help Boro avoid it this year and gain a much needed boost in the
standings.
Fourteenth place makes tough reading but such is the tight nature of the
table that a win over Scunthorpe (18th in the table) and Barnsley (16th) in the next two
games would have Boro on a much healthier footing.
They may also be two very important
wins as Boro would be a much more attractive destination for transfer
targets in the January window if they were in or near to the top six.
Column Continues Below...
Boro are on a run of three consecutive defeats and undoubtedly have some kind of issue
at home.
If anyone doubts the lengths Gordon will go to in order to cure poor home
form, they may be interested to know that in his Southampton days, when they had some
bad results after leaving The Dell for St Mary's, a pagan witch was brought in to
'exorcise' the ground!
Regardless of signings in the January window, one massive plus has come in the form
of midfield dynamo Gary O'Neil signing a contract until 2012. Boro are certainly a
better team for his presence.
SCUNTHORPE EYE VIEW
It is likely that Scunthorpe will have as much of an eye on the relegation battle as they will
on making a run at the play-offs.
Relegated in 2008, but promoted back to the
Championship at the first attempt, the Iron are currently five points above the
relegation zone and on a run of four games unbeaten, including a 1-0 win over Coventry.
However, it is worth noting that Scunthorpe have only one win this season from 11 away
games.
The Iron also have an impressive win over table topping Newcastle to their
credit this season.
They will look to add to their points tally and capitalise on
Middlesbrough's miserable home form.
HEAD TO HEAD
Goalkeepers
Boro - The struggle continues.
I had always accepted that Brad Jones was a solid
athletic shot stopper, who I believe had flaws in the area of dealing with crosses,
leadership and presence.
However, some interesting statistics from a 'Matt' on the
Anthony Vickers blog prompted me to look further into it.
I played goalkeeper and
coach them for a living now in US College 'soccer'.
Most teams hold their keepers
to standards. Goals to saves ratio is one of them. An acceptable ratio is
usually four saves for every goal scored, equating to 80% of shots on target saved.
There are flaws with all statistics, one being the lack of ability to differentiate
between a shot from five yards and one from 20. However, all keepers are judged in the same way and it is a way to judge performance numerically.
I decided to research Jones and four other keepers - Danny Coyne, Steve Harper (top of the League), Romain Larrieu (bottom of the League) and Joe Murphy (18th and next opponent) - to
see where Jones stands.
The statistics used are from the BBC website for League
games. The results are as follows:
Keeper Goals Conceded/Saves
Steve Harper 11/119 (10.8 saves to each goal conceded)
Danny Coyne 9/44 (4.89 saves to each goal conceded)
Romain Larrieu 35/114 (3.26 saves to each goal conceded)
Joe Murphy 39/109 (2.8 saves to each goal conceded)
Brad Jones 18/48 (2.67 saves to each goal conceded)
Any game that a goalkeeper started but did not finish was left out of these
calculations. Harper left at half-time in a 1-1 draw at West Brom and a 3-0 win
later in the season against Swansea. Murphy left a 1-0 win over Coventry after 17
minutes.
These statistics are interesting, and while many may assume that Harper playing for a
team that is top of the League makes it easier for him, the sheer number of saves he
has made does not support this argument.
He made 14 saves in a 1-0 win at Cardiff, 14
in a 2-1 loss at Blackpool, and 12 in a 1-0 win at Sheffield United. No other
keeper on the list made more than 10 saves in a single game.
Harper is also rated
as the top keeper by Actim, the official statistics of the Championship. The Actim list of
top 100 players features 11 goalkeepers. Brad Jones is not amongst them.
It appears that some of the criticism aimed at the Boro goalkeeper is justified.
Scunthorpe - Joe Murphy is a Republic of Ireland international and also had Premier League experience with West Brom in 2002, saving a penalty from Michael Owen, then
of Liverpool.
Edge: Scunthorpe. Murphy is not spectacular, but Jones is performing poorly overall
and does not have the confidence of the crowd. The question is, does he command the confidence of his team-mates?
Boro Defence v Scunthorpe Attack
Boro - Faced with a tough trip to an in-form Newcastle, Emanuel Pogatetz performed
well in his first game of the season at centre-back, adding grit and fight that
showed bravery and bottle.
If Boro were to keep clean sheets in the next two games, it
will be interesting to see the team sheet when St Ledger returns.
Wheater will be
looking for an upturn in form and Hoyte, McMahon, Taylor and Bennett continue to
battle for the full-back spots.
Scunthorpe - Gary Hooper and Paul Hayes lead the Scunthorpe attack.
Hooper scored
30 goals last season in the Iron's successful promotion campaign. Hooper is
adjusting well to life in the Championship and has a total of eight goals so far this
season.
Martin Hayes bagged 20 last year and has scored four so far this season. The
pair have played many games together in the last two seasons and will have a good
understanding of each other's games.
Edge: Boro. The addition of Pogatetz in the centre gives Boro a more physical presence.
Hooper and Hayes struggled in a 2-0 home defeat to Boro earlier in the season.
Midfield
Boro - Adam Johnson is out for the foreseeable future and fans will hope they have not
seen his last game in a Boro shirt. His pace, flair and nine goals from the left wing
will be missed.
The return from injury of Gary O'Neil is a welcome boost. O'Neil
has been magnificent, whether wide right or in the centre of midfield.
Osbourne is
becoming a stable presence and young Rhys Williams returned to centre mid at
Newcastle in a huge show of faith in him from Strachan.
Mark Yeates is performing
well and starting to cause the opposition a lot of problems going forward.
Scunthorpe - Northern Ireland international Grant McCann is a presence in central
midfield and has scored six goals so far this season.
McCann is joined in centre
midfield by the battling presence of Sam Togwell.
Another Northern Ireland
international, Michael O'Connor, also features in midfield.
Martyn Woolford is an attacking threat from the left wing. Boro may be wise to put
the more athletic O'Neil in the opposite spot rather than the more slow footed
Arca.
Woolford scored the winning goal that clinched promotion for Scunthorpe in
last season's play-off final. He has four goals to his credit already this season.
England Under-19 international Josh Wright mans the other wing.
Former Liverpool trainee Andrew Wright is a role player in the Iron midfield.
Wright had great success in the USA under Paul Baber of the Cape Cod Crusaders,
winning a PDL Division title.
Edge: Boro. We are getting more athletic in this department and should have too much
quality for Scunthorpe.
Boro Attack v Scunthorpe Defence
Boro - Kitson and Lita continue as the Boro front pairing.
Scunthorpe will produce a
much lesser resistance than the recent two opponents of Cardiff and Newcastle, meaning
these two will look to add to their goal totals of five (Lita) and three (Kitson).
The pacy Lita appears to perform better alongside the physical presence of either Kitson
or first option off the bench, Marcus Bent.
Scunthorpe - Captain Cliff Byrne is the right-back and a Republic of Ireland
Under-21 international.
At left-back is the speedy Marcus Williams, an academy
product who has made over 100 appearances for the club.
Centre-back David Mirfin
was a £150,000 signing from Huddersfield. Mirfin is a powerful presence with a
6'1", 14st 4lb frame and is nicknamed 'The Ox'.
Mirfin is joined by the
towering presence of 6'7" Rob Jones. Jones began his playing career with
Gateshead and has been captain of Hibernian in the Scottish Premier League.
Edge: Boro. Kitson will face a physical battle, but if he wins it, both his
finishing and the pace of Lita should cause the Iron problems.
Fans
Boro - There is no doubt that the crowd is fractured. More than one
opposition manager has stated his desire for his side to start well and get the crowd on the
players' backs.
This is becoming sadly true and a recent interview with Dave Kitson
shows that in the minds of the players, the home problem is very real.
"The expectancy from your home crowd can overawe you and get to players who are
comfortable on the ball and just destroy your confidence," he said.
"You misplace a pass and the house comes down on you, but when you're away from
home, you play the same pass, and you don't hear anything."
Scunthorpe - Scunthorpe will likely bring a small and hardcore following. However,
maybe the home fans will be an asset to them? Boro need a quick start and to score
the first goal to make the atmosphere difficult.
Edge: Even. Boro do not have a home field advantage right now.
Prediction
Boro win. They haev more experience and more quality. Coming off a difficult run of games, Boro
will look to climb the table again, starting here.
