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NET GAINS PREMIUM FOOTBALL TIPPING SERVICE 14-9-07
Mike Holden
Weekend Tips:
3pts Colchester to beat Charlton at 7/4 (Bet365)
If Geraint Williams was initially downhearted by the prospect of Colchester being treated with more respect this season, he will be delighted to see the U's chalked up at 7/4 for the visit of Charlton this weekend.
What happened to all the clichéd talk about the big teams not fancying the trip to Layer Road? Do we really forget so quickly? The case for second season syndrome has been echoed in many quarters but the impetuous reasoning doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
The loss of Chris Iwelumo and Jamie Cureton in attack is no great hardship when you consider that both players were picked up from the bargain bucket at Woolworths before Williams turned them into world beaters. Nobody has stopped to think that maybe it's the system that works at Layer Road rather than the parts.
Iwelumo will be returning in the red of Charlton for this game, but he knows he cannot possibly perform any better than he did last season. And he knows he will be a marked man against players who understand the limits of his game.
The same cannot be said for Kevin Lisbie. The successor to Cureton's role of fox-in-the-box already looks a different player in an environment where the expectations aren't quite so high but the belief in his ability is greater. Lisbie will be desperate to prove a point against former employers that never allowed him to flourish and he looks decent anytime value at 12/5 with Bet365.
The U's are being written off on the back of one isolated result against a very under-rated Burnley side and it could pay to keep faith in them, especially on the exchanges where the home win is available at bigger than 2/1.
3pts Mansfield to beat Chesterfield at 7/4 (Bet365)
Eight League Two sides went into last weekend unbeaten after four games but only three came through unscathed and Chesterfield will be taking their impressive start into the cauldron of a local derby with Mansfield at lunchtime on Saturday.
A cagey opening to the basement campaign means the Spirities are riding high in second place without really showing us too much of what they're about. Lee Richardson's men were more than a tad fortunate to yield maximum points from two home games against Wycombe and Bury on the back of a classic smash-and-grab at Peterborough, but they found the back of the net eight times in those games and that tells its own story.
A jaw-dropping goals-to-shots economy rate is not to be held against them but neither is it just cause for chalking them up as clear favourites on the road. Mansfield have waited four years for the opportunity to get stuck into their rivals from Derbyshire and manager Billy Dearden knows that victory in this one-off clash could buy him some valuable time and patience from the fans in what promises to be another long season on limited resources.
The Stags are more than capable of raising their game for big matches - three of the top four sides perished at Field Mill last season - and they will be looking to repeat the blistering start in their last home game when promotion hopefuls Stockport were stunned by four goals in the opening 32 minutes.
Even the early kick-off cannot dampen the anticipation of goals in this game and 7/4 is good value on the home side helping themselves to more than the visitors.
3pts Sheff Wed to beat Preston (draw no bet) at 7/4 (Sporting Bet)
Confidence will be a commodity in short supply at Deepdale on Saturday. Preston North End and Sheffield Wednesday occupy the bottom two places in the Championship table with just one point between them and a combined goal difference of minus 13 from four games apiece.
It's usually easier to be the away side in such scenarios and this fixture is no exception. Wednesday might be bottom of the table but North End are in greater disarray. The Lilywhites are lacking cohesion and creating fewer chances, and serious question marks remain over the control Paul Simpson has on his dressing room.
The Preston boss has aired his dirty washing with fresh talk of yet another bad apple, this following the departure of goalkeeper Carlo Nash to Wigan under a similar cloud. Simpson had hoped to offload his latest mischief maker last month but the only man seen heading for the exit door at the end of August was his chairman and chief ally Derek Shaw, the clearest indication yet that the manager might be next to follow.
Whichever way he turns, the writing appears to be on the wall and defeat against the Owls will surely cement his fate. By contrast, Brian Laws can consider himself relatively comfortable in the Hillsborough hot-seat. The Wednesday faithful are far from impressed by the start their team have made but they generally remain behind Laws after the turnaround in fortunes he brought about last season.
A lack of belief in front of goal is the only thing missing from their game at the moment and it will give them a boost to know they are coming face-to-face with a team in a more fragile state than themselves.
3pts Bristol Rovers to beat Leeds at 2/1 (Totesport
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Leeds have been short-priced in every game they've played so far but the temptation to oppose them has been resisted for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the 15-point deduction imposed by the Football League changed the dynamics of their collective mental approach and it was always likely to galvanise the Elland Road dressing room. Secondly, none of their opening four opponents fell into the classic small-club-desperate-to-take-a-big-scalp category.
That changed last weekend against when the Whites came up against Hartlepool but, after much deliberation, the visitors were swerved at 4/1 because the psychological prize of wiping out the 15-point deficit in five straight games was considered too great for Dennis Wise's men. It came as little surprise to learn Leeds were second best throughout and it should serve as a reminder that the Yorkshire club are nowhere near as talented as their early results suggest.
Nonetheless, we should also remain respectful of the unshakeable sense of belief that Wise has fostered in his players and their hordes of followers. And belief is not easiest commodity to overcome. However, Leeds head down to Bristol Rovers on Friday evening and they now look ripe for picking.
The siege mentality might lose some of its edge now the club are back on zero points and the humble surroundings of the Memorial Stadium will provide their first real taste of life at this level. The Pirates' many qualities have been lauded by this service on numerous occasions already this season and 2/1 is a huge price on a team full of confidence after starting the season unbeaten.
By Bettingzone.co.uk
Used with permission.
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